Kentucky Derby Preview: The Ultimate Guide to the 152nd Running of the Roses

Fancy hats. A garland of roses. The fastest two minutes in sports, as 20 thoroughbreds gallop for one and a quarter miles. 

Each year, you think you’ve got the winning ticket, only to get burned by a horse that runs out of gas down the stretch or a last-second effort that falls short. But you come back thinking that this will be the time you finally cash the winning ticket. No, I am not an expert handicapper, but I did ride the cousin of Derby champions Smarty Jones and Mine That Bird this weekend, so there is that. 

Here is The Argus’ preview of the 152nd Run for the Roses.

Renegade (4–1)

The slight favorite in the 2026 Derby. Trained by Todd Pletcher, who has two Kentucky Derbys to his name, Renegade won the Arkansas Derby a month ago. Analyst Andie Biancone described his gait when riding him like “driving a car,” indicating he has a smooth running style. That should be important for him, given he has never raced at Churchill Downs before. Renegade will be ridden by Irad Ortiz, perhaps the best jockey in the world without a Derby title. Unfortunately, for Renegade, he will run from the first post position. The last champion from the first post was Ferdinand in 1986. In a race as crowded as the Kentucky Derby, he will likely fall into a pack of horses early on. However, as a closer, he has shown the ability to come from behind and win, most notably in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. His solid performances in prep races and his trainer’s background make him one of the more reliable picks in the field. 

Further Ado (5–1)

The data backs Further Ado. Of every horse in the field, Further Ado has posted the highest Beyer Speed Figure at 106, highlighted by an 11-length victory in the Blue Grass Stakes. He will be piloted by Hall of Famer John “Johnny V” Velazquez, who brings a history of six Triple Crown race victories. Having prior experience racing at Churchill Downs eliminates a major question mark for Further Ado. Like Renegade, Further Ado did not draw the best post, as he will run from the 18th post. While he will start on the outside, last year’s winner, Sovereignty, started from the 16th post, so a victory is not really out of the question. With great speed and a seasoned rider, Further Ado is justifiably one of the top picks to win the Kentucky Derby. 

Commandment (6–1)

The winner of the Florida Derby, Commandment, has an excellent track record with four wins in five starts. Commandment shows up in the big moments, according to his trainer, Brad Cox.

“He’s big, but when he arrives in the paddock and knows when it’s showtime, he kind of blows up a little bit,” Cox said. “He has a great mind. I think that’s one of the best things he has going for him.”

Commandment will post from the sixth position, a solid spot. The biggest concern may be with his jockey, Luis Saez. Saez will be Commandment’s fourth different jockey over six races. This turnover raises questions about trust between the horse and rider. Despite this, his raw athleticism provides him with the ability to win.

Chief Wallabee (8–1)

The wildcard pick, Chief Wallabee, has no graded stakes wins, but he’s shown great potential through his three races. He displayed flashes in his third-place finish in the Florida Derby, which featured a deep field. Plus, he is trained by Bill Mott, who stood in the winner’s circle last year at the Derby with Sovereignty, and will be mounted by Sovereignty’s jockey, Junior Alvarado. The possible addition of blinkers, an attachment to a horse’s bridle that encourages them to only see forward, in the Derby could bring added focus. However, adding blinkers before the Derby usually does not have a great track record of being successful. With no graded stakes wins, I think it’s unlikely he will win outright, but in the Derby, where anything can happen, a top-three finish would not be surprising.

The Puma (10–1)

The Puma’s chances are better than the odds suggest. He’s quietly built a nice resume, winning the Tampa Bay Derby and finishing second in the Florida Derby. He knows how to race under the spotlight and how to win in big moments. Expect him to be a popular pick by Derby Day. 

So Happy (15–1)

Like Renegade, So Happy is also trained by Pletcher, and in the saddle will be the legendary Mike Smith, who aims to make history by becoming the first jockey in his sixties to win the Kentucky Derby. So Happy’s pedigree suggests he could be the horse to keep an eye on in the rain: His sire loved to run in the mud, thriving under the difficult conditions. However, he has never raced on a track as long as Churchill Downs. At a mile and a quarter, that is a real concern. With a wet track and Smith in the saddle, an upset is not out of the question.

The Field 

None of these horses are likely to win, but they could provide good value. Incredibolt (20–1) previously won a maiden special weight race at Churchill Downs, which shows he can win a race on the track. Danon Bourbon (20–1) brings international racing experience, including a win at the Fukuryu Stakes, plus a great name for the state of Kentucky. Emerging Market (20–1) has only raced twice, but won both times, including at the Louisiana Derby. Potente (20–1) is trained by Bob Baffert, who has six Kentucky Derbys to his name. Fulleffort (20–1), another Cox horse, has drawn attention after his great workout this week when he ran five furlongs at 59 seconds. In the Derby, we have seen almost any horse win, so keep an eye on these horses.

Conclusion

My pick to win the 152nd Kentucky Derby? Commandment. 

His strong performance in the Florida Derby, along with his smooth gait and effortless athleticism, makes him the top horse in a wide open field. I had initially leaned towards Renegade, but his post position makes me skeptical. If going for the high-risk, high-reward trifecta, I would go with Commandment at the top, followed by Further Ado and The Puma. Of course, the weather conditions on the day of the race could make an impact, so keep an eye on the forecast!

From the bugle calling the horses to post to announcer Larry Collmus’ signature call of “and they’re into the stretch,” the Derby is sure to make for another electric two minutes!

Blake Fox can be reached at bfox@wesleyan.edu.