On the morning of Thursday, Jan. 22, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences revealed their nominations for the 2026 Oscars; in this article, I will share my definitive, 100% certain picks for each of the major awards (or, more precisely, my extremely subjective analysis).
Before digging in, I should note that I am by no means a professional journalist or Hollywood insider (shocker), so I haven’t had the opportunity to watch a handful of the nominated films. For these unseen movies, I’ll use quotes from peers and classmates who have seen the films.
The Nominees for Best Picture
“The Secret Agent”—I love this film. The Brazilian period crime epic is one of the strongest of the year and has been picking up momentum on the awards trail. All things considered, however, the odds that “The Secret Agent” can pull off a major upset here are highly unlikely.
“Marty Supreme”—It’s great, yes, but in a category looking increasingly like a three-horse race, Josh Safdie’s ping-pong thrill-ride is looking firmly fourth. I have a suspicion that the movie won’t be forgotten by audiences anytime soon, but as for awards chances, Timmy Tim and the gang may have dreamed a little too big.
“F1”—Unfortunately, I haven’t seen this because I watch real sports and am not a loser, but Sachin Rao ’29 did. “I think it’s a pretty solid blockbuster,” Rao said. That seems to be the critical consensus as well, but it’s frankly a shock that “F1” snuck into this category since its chances of winning are just about zero.
“Frankenstein”—Another unlikely candidate for the trophy, Guillermo del Toro’s reimagining of the classic tale always seemed like a lock to make it into the category but no further. “It’s generally pretty good, but a little bit ‘extra’ sometimes, and it’s not a very good adaptation,” said Rao.
“One Battle After Another”—Remember those three horses I was talking about earlier, the ones that were racing? Here’s number one. “One Battle After Another” seems to be the frontrunner, and despite the fact that I am a sworn contrarian who hates most things, I have to admit, it is close to a perfect movie. There wouldn’t be any complaints from me if Paul Thomas Anderson’s modern masterpiece dominated the awards this year.
“Bugonia”—I thoroughly enjoyed Yorgos Lanthimos’ dark comedy, but I just can’t envision a world in which this comes through and wins Best Picture. It’s a strong film, but does not have anywhere near the buzz or support it would need to be a real contender.
“Train Dreams”—This is a good movie, not a great one. It’s occasionally touching and beautifully shot, but at times unbearably saccharine and preachy. It makes sense that it landed in the category, but it most definitely does not deserve the win. It would be a stunning result, but not an impossible one.
“Sinners”—This is the second horse in the race. Who doesn’t love “Sinners”? It’s wonderful! Scary, silly, and endlessly rewatchable. It’s one of the most incredible Hollywood stories in years; a blockbuster hit that also happens to be whip-smart and gorgeously constructed doesn’t come along often. The Academy certainly recognized that, showering Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with a record-breaking 16 nominations. It’s an exceptional movie, truly, but when it comes down to it, I have to give the edge to “One Battle After Another”; it’s simply a better film.
“Hamnet”— Chloé Zhao’s Shakespearean tearjerker won Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes and is the third proverbial horse jockeying for Best Picture. I have yet to see it, but Izzy Haick ’29 says, “It was incredibly moving, the performances were extraordinary, and it functioned as a very effective love letter to storytelling.” It’s a strong contender, for sure, but does it have enough steam to overtake “One Battle After Another”? Only time will tell.
“Sentimental Value”—Unquestionably a dark horse (I feel that making this whole thing a horse metaphor has invalidated the use of the phrase “dark horse,” but I digress), Joachim Trier’s family drama is a sharp, intelligent piece of filmmaking, and it’s most definitely a contender. Despite that, I’d put it more in line with “Marty Supreme” as a strong option that could have a shot to upset the whole category.
Who Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Who Should Win: “One Battle After Another”
Biggest Snub: “No Other Choice”—Park Chan-wook’s vicious satire is his best film in years and unquestionably exquisite, yet somehow it didn’t pick up a single nomination. It’s quite stunning that a movie about Brad Pitt driving cars really fast got nominated and this missed out.
The Nominees for Best Actor
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”—To his credit, he plays two roles! It’s no small task to carry a film like “Sinners” on your back, let alone as two different characters. Jordan is very sharp, but in the grand scheme of things, it’s far from the strongest performance in the category.
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”—I seriously doubt DiCaprio’s chances in this category despite his surprisingly tender, often hilarious work. He’s won the category before, and it seems like this year the Academy is most likely to give the award to an up-and-comer by the name of…
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”—It’s his award to lose. Between the press tour, the buzz, and the image, Chalamet has built a reputation as “the next big thing,” and after losing for “A Complete Unknown” last year, it seems like this is the year that the heir apparent of leading men will be crowned. Aside from all the behind-the-scenes machinations, his win wouldn’t be undeserved; he does wonderful work as the weaselly, sometimes infuriating title character.
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”—Moura is the biggest challenger to Chalamet’s ascension. He won the Golden Globe in the Drama category, and his exceptional performance feels like a pitch-perfect throwback to the classic actors of the 1970s. He’s got plenty of momentum going into the Oscars and could be the first Brazilian actor to win Best Actor.
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”—I mean, I guess it’s nice that he got nominated? Good for him. Who doesn’t love Ethan Hawke? As far as winning goes, however, he’s got no chance.
Who Will Win: Timothée Chalamet
Who Should Win: Timothée Chalamet
Biggest Snub: Joaquin Phoenix, “Eddington”—Love it or hate it, you have to admit that Phoenix is dynamite in this. As Sheriff Joe Cross, he constantly toys with our sympathy, oscillating between a pitiful loser and a cold-hearted dirtbag. It’s excellent acting, but the film’s divisiveness likely held Academy voters back from giving him the nod.
The Nominees for Best Actress
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”—Stone gives a strong performance here as a billionaire CEO/potential extraterrestrial, adding a degree of genuine pathos to her character and keeping us on our toes throughout the film’s runtime. It’s very good work, but I don’t think she has quite enough buzz to win the category yet again (although it’s not impossible).
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”—Buckley is quite possibly the frontrunner. As I said before, I have yet to see the film, but from all I’ve heard, her performance consists of a lot of crying, screaming, and being sad. That sounds like an Oscars to me.
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”—Like literally every other human being in the world, I haven’t seen this and have no particular interest in doing so, but regardless of the quality of Hudson’s work, she falls firmly into the “it’s an honor just to be nominated” category.
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”—Coming off a Golden Globes win, Byrne has serious momentum going into the Oscars, and her vulnerable, passionate performance is nothing short of remarkable. In spite of all that, I think I have to give Buckley the edge here in terms of taking home the award, although I’d love to see Byrne nab it.
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”—Unfortunately, I fear that the Buckley/Byrne competition will ice Reinsve out, but she was still deeply deserving of the nomination, giving an understated yet deeply human performance. Considering her exceptional work in this film and “The Worst Person in the World”, it’s only a matter of time before she picks up a worthy victory.
Who Will Win: Jessie Buckley
Who Should Win: Rose Byrne
Biggest Snub: Susan Chardy, “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl”—This Zambian surrealist drama was Chardy’s first-ever film role, but she acts with a rawness and realism that feels absolutely shattering. Full of barely-contained rage and frustration simmering just under the surface, Chardy’s subtle work here is phenomenal.
The Nominees for Best Supporting Actor
Delory Lindo, “Sinners”—It’s a delight that Lindo was nominated for his hilarious yet deeply sincere performance, but similarly to Jordan, I just don’t feel that the performances in “Sinners” were as textured or unique as many other nominees (through no fault of the actors, more as a result of the screenplay).
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”—Jacob Elordi is not going to win an Oscar this year. That’s just a fact. Of course, if he somehow does, I’ll never live this claim down. Regardless, I stand by it.
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”—The unquestionable frontrunner, Skarsgård does what he does best here, lending his character multidimensionality and true moral ambiguity with charm and aplomb. He picked up the Golden Globe in January, so he’ll be feeling confident going into the Oscars.
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”—A really wonderful performance here by Sean Penn could easily come through and beat Skarsgård’s. He’s a total ham, eating up every second on screen with distinctive mannerisms and tics that made his terrifying yet hilarious Colonel Lockjaw an unforgettable character. I generally prefer subtler performances, but listen to the way he says “Do you love black girls? I love ’em,” and tell me he doesn’t deserve every award ever.
Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”—Although del Toro is undeniably charismatic as Sensei Sergio St. Carlos (what a name!), he simply doesn’t have quite as much to do as Penn, and I can’t envision him winning the category.
Who Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård
Who Should Win: Sean Penn
Biggest Snub: Billy Crudup, Jay Kelly—Crudup shows up for about 10 minutes towards the start of the film, goes on an absolute heater, and then disappears. He is hands-down perfect in his one scene opposite George Clooney, and although I enjoyed the rest of the film, I frequently found myself crossing my fingers and praying that Crudup would return.
The Nominees for Best Supporting Actress
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”—She picked up a Golden Globe for her incendiary performance, and it’s hard to argue with the merit of her performance; she completely steals the film’s extended prologue, leaving an indelible mark on the rest of the film. In a film packed with outstanding performances, she’s the best (although Regina Hall, surprisingly snubbed, deserves a shout-out).
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”—She does very well to ground the film and add a degree of emotional sincerity that it sometimes misses. Of the three nominated performances from “Sinners,” hers is far and away my favorite, but all things considered, I don’t know that she’s been given quite enough to do here, and that will likely hurt her chances in this category.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”—In her breakout part, the Norwegian actress is a stellar scene partner to Reinsve, giving an understated, quietly devastating performance. In spite of that, it seems unlikely that she’ll be able to overcome Taylor.
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”—The fun one! Madigan is an absolute hoot as the sinister (yet often quite hilarious) Aunt Gladys in Zach Cregger’s horror thriller, and of the nominees, she seems the most likely to pull off an upset win. She’s been acting for decades, and it’s wonderful to see her finally receive her much-deserved praise.
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”—Fanning is good, lending a little energy and spirit to the otherwise downbeat film, but I find it hard to imagine her winning the category over Taylor or Madigan.
Who Will Win: Teyana Taylor
Who Should Win: Teyana Taylor
Biggest Snub: Mariam Afshari, “It Was Just An Accident.” As Shiva, a former political prisoner turned wedding photographer, Afshari (in just her second credited role) gives the performance of a lifetime, bringing true steeliness and resolve to a cast of characters often defined by hesitance and uncertainty, while also deftly balancing on the film’s moral tightrope. She’s superb, and her work was deserving of far more praise.
Lucas Chiorini can be reached at lchiorini@wesleyan.edu.
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