Even if you paid no attention to the November 2nd election, there are probably a few things that still caught your attention. You could not, for instance, have checked Facebook without seeing “Cali came so close!” statuses in reference to California’s defeat of Proposition 19, which would have legalized marijuana. Obviously, this ballot initiative was not the most important result of the midterm election, but it does epitomize the resounding liberal defeat that took place across the country.
Tuesday witnessed the greatest change in power in the House since 1948, and a substantial loss of Democratic power in the Senate. Democrats, as any pundit will tell you, have been taught a lesson. Actually, they’ve been taught several lessons, and all of them will prove very difficult to interpret.
For one, they have learned how dangerous Republicans can be with a lot of money. Conservative political action groups poured money into key House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races to great effect. Even heavily entrenched democrats such as Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin fell victim to this potent mix of anti-incumbent sentiment and massive outside funding.
This lesson about money can help Democrats in two years; but, for now, the greatest question is how they should govern in the wake of such a great defeat. New leaders such as John Boehner, our new Speaker of the House, believe that Americans have validated the platform of the GOP and taken part in a “repudiation of Washington,” as Boehner himself put it. Boehner reflects the attitudes of his party as a whole when he goes on to interpret this victory as a sign that the Democratic government must “change course.”
Obviously, the American people aren’t in love with the Democrats anymore—their losses in the House demonstrate this quite well. However, the election may not signify the mandate Boehner is referring to. The Democrats managed to win several important gubernatorial races and hold on to their majority in the Senate, keeping 53 seats. Perhaps most importantly, Harry Reid, the third most powerful Democrat in government after Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, won his reelection bid in conservative Nevada.
Obama and Reid (Pelosi will be less relevant as House Minority Leader) now have to decide what all this means. They have to decide how to interpret this mixed message and, more importantly, how much influence it will have on their agenda.
After all, things are looking up in the economy. It now looks like the $700 billion in TARP money given out in 2008 and 2009 (the Wall Street and eventually auto bailouts) will be almost entirely paid back with only around $50 billion outstanding. This now looks like a small price to pay for preventing the potential failure of America’s financial institutions and auto industry, and for potentially averting a major depression. It seems strange for seemingly vindicated policies such as this to be the impetus of major anti-Democratic sentiment. October also saw the most private sector jobs added to the economy in months, with 151,000 new jobs and comparatively few losses.
The Democratic leadership, which still has considerable power even after their midterm losses, must not ignore the good that has come from TARP, stimulus, and increased regulation. They must not sacrifice their values and convictions in the wake of populist rage.
What they must do is communicate better with the American people. They must work with the Republican House majority but not for it, as they did with the Republican minority. Imminent gridlock is the only obvious outcome of this midterm election. We don’t need gridlock in government just like we don’t need tax cuts for the wealthy and the repeal of healthcare.
Presidents have come out of Midterm defeats to become great presidents before, and Obama has that potential. The question is whether he will rise to the occasion or allow Boehner’s obstinate new majority to overwhelm him. The answer to this question will shape more than just Obama’s presidency—the ways in which we tackle our domestic difficulties will help determine our ability to respond to looming international crises.
Gary is a member of the class of 2014.
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