Thank the Lord, it’s time to talk baseball. I’ve been looking forward to this for a while. Let’s start with the National League.
NL EAST: Although this seems like it could be the first year in the last several centuries that someone will overtake the Braves, it won’t be. Their pitching is just as good as the Marlins and maybe the Phillies, but they’ll score more runs. Losing Sheffield, Javy Lopez and Maddux hurts somewhat, but they’ve been through it many times before and still have a potent lineup. Philly and Florida will have some great streaks, and the Phils could even have a great first half. But down the stretch it will be the Braves, with their experience getting it done. Look for the Mets to suck again, it’s always fun.
NL CENTRAL: Everyone loves the Cubs, I’m picking the Astros. Their pitching was excellent even before Pettitte and Clemens came home, and their hitting is good enough. The difference between these ring-wearing Texans and other aces is that they’re proven winners. Kerry Wood, with his league-leading strikeouts, blew the Cubs’ season last year in a series where the Cubs gave up leads over and over. And Mark Prior may look like the best pitcher in the NL, but he still threw poorly in Game 6 of the NLCS. Maddux’s ERA jumped almost a run and a half from 2002 to 2003. Pettitte and Clemens are warriors down the stretch, and if you think Clemens may be getting too old, so did every Red Sox fan the year we let him go. But hey, he only won three more Cy Youngs after that.
NL WEST: Giants, almost by default. They’re really the only good team in this division. Oh yeah, and they have the best hitter in the history of baseball, whose numbers in the past three seasons might never be seen again. Felipe Alou is one of the best managers in the game, and one of the best guys. The fact that the Red Sox hired Grady Little over him is absolutely inexcusable. Yet another detrimental effect of Red Sox racism.
AL WEST: Jose Guillen is a quality outfielder, and Vlad Guerrero is one of the best players in baseball, if he can stay healthy for the Angels. But Kelvim Escobar has had two years of humble ERA (around 4.25) while his opponents batting average has actually gotten higher in the last three years. Colon’s ERA is also around 4, and his 2003 and 2001 seasons were really mediocre. The Angels have one left-handed pitcher. Seattle lost Sasaki, Rhodes, Jeff Nelson and Mike Cameron. With Bret Boone deprived of his steroids they’re in serious trouble, as they already lack punch in their line-up (second to last in the AL in homeruns). He could always go back to television. A cushy job, especially when you don’t say anything.
Getting to the point, I pick Oakland. It’s not an easy one, and even though I make it a rule not to question Billy Beane, I have to say I’m scratching my head about his winter moves. Ted Lilly, pretty damn good pitcher at a time when they certainly don’t grow on trees, for a mediocre outfielder? Ramon Hernandez, an excellent defensive catcher who’s a leader and a clutch hitter, for another mediocre outfielder?
Finally, why pick up Eric Karros, who in his many years in the league has never reached his “potential” and is basically a bum? But the Big Three of Zito, Mulder, and Hudson are joined by Rich Harden, who could have either a great year or a sophomore slump, and Mark Redman, reliable for a fourth or fifth starter. Look for Chad Bradford to almost fill Foulke’s shoes. Pitching, Watson, pitching.
AL CENTRAL: Other than the players on the Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins, and Tigers, does anyone care who wins this division? I’ll go with the Twins.
AL EAST: The best division in baseball. Toronto will be better with another good pitcher in Lilly, and no reason to think that Halladay won’t have another dominant season. Delgado’s the best clean-up hitter in the league, and he Del-got-it. They had the second best offense last season, it’s just too bad they’re in the wrong division.
I’m not as convinced about the Orioles, despite Tejada, who really didn’t have nearly as good a season last year as the one before it. And who are they expecting to pitch well for them other than Sidney Ponson? They lost one of their better relievers (Kerry Ligtenberg) and starters (Pat Hengten). They’ve had good teams before, and haven’t gotten it done. I don’t expect much difference.
Okay, the Yankees and A-Rod, I know. But is there anyone else that notices that their pitching, especially their bullpen, is not nearly what it was? Kevin Brown can be very good, but nobody’s expecting him to be healthy all year. Mussina’s a certified ace, but let’s see about Vasquez. Two of the most relied-upon Yankees, Vasquez and A-Rod, are going from no-pressure environments straight to the belly of the beast.
A-Rod’s a natural, I know. But wait, remember when we all thought Ken Griffey Jr. was a God? Jose Contreras hasn’t shown anything resembling consistency and can be shaken easily. And I know Rivera is still the man, and will be in the playoffs, but he’s closing in on Social Security and will have to carry the burden of the bullpen on his shoulders for a full season. Gabe White, Felix Heredia, Tom Gordon? That just won’t do.
So the Red Sox’ Theo Epstein went with more conventional thinking: when you set records in offensive excellence, you go after pitching. Schilling’s days are far from over, he’s got the body, style, and work ethic of Roger Clemens, and he’ll have the kind of year he had two seasons ago. He even says he’s working on a new pitch . . . scary.
Pedro’s best days might be behind him, but his E.R.A. and strikeouts per nine innings are still among the best in baseball and now they’ll be able to save him more because … the bullpen! Keith Foulke can give two lights-out innings every game, not to mention Williamson, Embree, and Timlin, who all throw seeds and don’t walk batters. Watch out for Bronson Arroyo, unless he also has that sophomore slump. The surprise will be that Byung-Hyun Kim will prove himself as an excellent fourth or fifth starter. Schilling has said his former and current teammate will win 20, I’d be happy with 16. Pick: Red Sox.
Concerning the current Henry-Steinbrenner debate: John Henry is right and wrong. He’s right that there’s something terribly wrong with baseball, he’s wrong in that he’s as much of the problem as Steinbrenner. Sure, the Yankees could get A-Rod and the Sox couldn’t. But the Sox could add Schilling and Foulke, and pay Ellis Burks a couple million to be their right-handed hitter of the bench, while the A’s couldn’t even keep Ramon Hernandez.
The fact is that comparing either of these teams to, say, the Devil Rays is like comparing the Lakers to Southwest Missouri State. It’s absolutely ridiculous, and I maintain that more teams start the season with no real chance of winning anything in baseball than in any other sport.
There’s a direct connection between the NFL’s tight salary cap and the fact that there are a number of extremely close games every weekend and divisional races are often down to the wire. The MLB has always been the most conservative league: last to have African-American and Latino managers and GM’s, still nothing even close to a serious salary cap, and still the only league out of the big four that doesn’t give the substantial money it collects in fines to charity. Great sport. Bad commissioner, bad league.
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