NBA Playoff Primer: Teddy Asks Three Questions Heading Into the Postseason

We’re so back. The weather is beautiful, baseball has returned, and the NBA playoffs are about to kick off. Spring remains an underrated time for sports. Let’s walk through what’s at stake in an incredible postseason slate! 

Which East Contender Rises Above the Rest? 

I have zero clue here, to be honest. The Detroit Pistons were the surprise of the conference after skyrocketing early and running away with the no. 1 seed, despite a somewhat lengthy absence from superstar Cade Cunningham due to a collapsed lung. It’s been the ascension of Jalen Duren and their depth of talent that’s been the key behind Cade. Duren’s averaged nearly 20 and 10 with a tough, physical brand of basketball that 90s fans would love, while Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart, and Daniss Jenkins have been a well-oiled machine as a supporting cast (especially Jenkins, who provided a much-needed offensive spark without Cunningham). The problem with Detroit may be the viability of their half-court offense in a playoff setting: Cade does a lot of table-setting for them, and questions have been raised about their secondary perimeter creation—to be fair, Jenkins has shown that he can step into that role from time to time if need be. 

A no. 2 seed for the Boston Celtics seemed insane coming into the year, and yet that’s exactly where Boston finds itself heading into the postseason. Talks of a rebuilding year amidst Jayson Tatum’s Achilles rehab were immediately shot down by Jaylen Brown, who’s had an MVP-worthy season stepping into the lead creator role for the Celts. But this year has also been a masterclass for the Boston organization, as every move they’ve made has hit. Young guys like Hugo González, Jordan Walsh, and Baylor Scheierman have had breakout years with valuable wing rotation minutes, while Neemias Queta—quite literally a fringe NBA player this time last year—has provided starting minutes and production on a high-level playoff team. Add to that the stellar play of Derrick White and Payton Pritchard, along with Tatum’s impressive late-season return, and it makes sense why Boston is the current betting favorite in the East. Their concerns? I’d say how their somewhat unproven center rotation of Queta and Nikola Vučević will fare in the playoffs, as well as their offensive execution in the late stages of games: We saw that issue pop up last year in the Knicks series, and there might be some ironing out to do between Tatum and Brown in terms of who the late-game offense runs through. 

After being projected as the preseason East favorite, a no. 3 seed feels somewhat disappointing for the New York Knicks. It’s been a bit of a ho-hum year for New York, who roll into April with largely the same team as last year. The one big change is new Head Coach Mike Brown, who’s made a point to dip a little deeper into his bench than predecessor Tom Thibodeau. New reserves Jose Alvarado and Jordan Clarkson, along with the steady Miles McBride, the shot-blocking Mitchell Robinson, and the shooter Landry Shamet, give the Knicks more depth than they’ve had in years past. My concern is their playoff defense, especially regarding Karl-Anthony Towns. As good as he is offensively, we saw him get picked apart defensively by the Indiana Pacers in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals: It’s just difficult to manage a defense with both him and Jalen Brunson on the floor for the opposing team to attack. I feel somewhat secure with Brunson at the helm, and the good news is that they’re constructed to at least match up with Boston pretty well; I just don’t know if they have enough defensive resilience to overcome both the Celtics and Detroit. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are an interesting dark horse team in the no. 4 seed, undergoing probably the biggest change out of the East contenders this year with their midseason trade for James Harden. Harden has brought more size, strength, and durability than Darius Garland, but there are still serious concerns with his playoff production, especially in big games. Donovan Mitchell is as solid as always, but Evan Mobley seems like he’s somewhat hit a ceiling on the offensive side of the ball. On the bright side, the Harden-Jarrett Allen chemistry seems strong, and I love the additions of Keon Ellis and Dennis Schröder to bring some defensive guard depth. I honestly think dark horse might be underselling them—they’re currently the second betting favorite behind Boston to come out of the East—but I’m yet to reach a concrete prognosis on this Cavs team. They’re currently projected to face Detroit in the second round of the playoffs, a matchup I don’t hate, and Mitchell is a proven playoff riser. But I don’t love a Boston or New York matchup for them, and the Harden reliability always scares me. 

It truly pains me to write this, but if I had to pick, I’m going to go with Boston to win the conference: They’re just the best team top to bottom, and they’ve been here too many times. As I mentioned, I’m definitely interested to see how the Brown-Tatum dynamic plays out as Jayson gets healthier, but the rest of their team is so strong that I’m not sure how much that even matters. I think the Knicks give them a bit of a scare, but the Celtics make it out of the East. 

Can Play-In Teams Make Any Noise? 

This is a particularly exciting play-in year with some fun no. 7 and no. 8 seeds! The Charlotte Hornets stormed down the stretch in the regular season, led by the high-powered offensive trio of LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel, and Brandon Miller. Coby White brings some pop off the bench, while Moussa Diabaté and Ryan Kalkbrenner are a young and exciting center duo. They’re only the no. 9 seed, so they’ll have to win two games in a row to make the playoffs, but this would not be a fun matchup for Detroit. 

There’s also Philadelphia and Orlando, who are a bit older but could scare some higher seeds. The Philadelphia 76ers have had a fascinating year: They’ve experienced an impressive V. J. Edgecombe rookie campaign, the constant Joel Embiid injury cycle, and Paul George getting suspended before coming back to play some of his best ball in years. Embiid’s playoff status is uncertain after undergoing surgery for appendicitis, but this team is still interesting with the combination of Tyrese Maxey, George, and Edgecombe at the helm. The Orlando Magic have vastly underperformed this season, struggling with injuries and subpar play from Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. But Anthony Black has been a bright spot, emerging as a dynamic young guard, and Desmond Bane has been a solid veteran addition. While they’re probably gone in the first round, their combination of physicality, size, and toughness could give them a game or two against Detroit or Boston. 

The first-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder probably steamroll whatever no. 8 seed comes out of the West, but I’m interested to see what matchup plays the inexperienced, second-seeded San Antonio Spurs. My two teams to watch in the West play-in are the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers: tough, veteran squads that could throw a scare into San Antonio. Phoenix has had a pretty surprising year, as many picked them to miss the playoffs after the departure of Kevin Durant. Devin Booker has been solid as their main star, but it’s been the development of supporting pieces like Dillon Brooks, Collin Gillespie, and Mark Williams that have been the key to their regular-season success. New Head Coach Jordan Ott has the team playing with fire and aggression, and their physicality, along with playoff experience, will be interesting to see interact with San Antonio. The Clippers are another potentially fascinating team, as they were on the other side of the Harden-Garland trade. Garland’s been great when healthy (always the concern with him), while Kawhi Leonard has had a stellar and pretty durable year. While there are some legitimate questions about their big man depth, especially after trading away Ivica Zubac at the deadline, the Clippers could put a scare into the Spurs if Kawhi gets on one of his playoff heaters. To be clear, I’m still picking San Antonio over both of these teams, but it could be a more entertaining first-round matchup than many expect.

Will Anyone Take Down OKC in the West?

The Western Conference is going to be cinema. The Los Angeles Lakers’ recent injury news—they’ll be without Luka Dončić or Austin Reaves for at least the first round—is disheartening and pretty much takes them out of championship contention, but other than that, we should have some extremely competitive showdowns with talented teams. 

What more is there to say about the Thunder? They’ve followed up a championship with another dominant regular season, securing the top seed in the conference once again. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win another MVP, Jalen Williams is rounding into form, and the team is as deep as ever. They added shooter Jared McCain at the deadline, a move that’s aged beautifully so far, and Ajay Mitchell has turned into a legitimate scorer off the bench. This team is better than last year, which is ridiculous. 

But they’ll also face more competition than last year, especially from San Antonio. The Spurs might be the story of the season, as Victor Wembanyama has taken a leap into the MVP conversation and is a top five player in the league. Stephon Castle might make an All-NBA Team this season, De’Aaron Fox gives veteran shot creation, and rookie Dylan Harper continues to expand his role. This team is crazy deep, athletic, and hungry, but there are also legitimate questions about their experience; this will be the first playoffs for most of the guys in the rotation. 

Then there are the Denver Nuggets, led by the consensus best player in the world, Nikola Jokić. But it’s the overall strength of the roster that’s helped Denver this year, as Jamal Murray has been great all season, and Aaron Gordon (when healthy) continues to be one of the best role players in the league. Peyton Watson has broken out, Cameron Johnson is playing better of late, and the team just feels younger and deeper in general. I really, really like this Nuggets squad—there are some concerns about their lack of a consistent defensive effort, but when they turn it on, they can play with anyone. 

But Denver will have a brutal matchup right out of the gate with the Minnesota Timberwolves. It’s been a weird year for Minnesota, as, besides a career season for Jaden McDaniels, they don’t really have any major developments. Yet they remain a dangerous playoff opponent: Their size, physicality, and defensive upside always play up in the postseason, as they benefit year after year from referees allowing increased contact. Anthony Edwards is a stud, I like their midseason trade for Ayo Dosunmu, and this team always surprises folks. I’m going with the Nuggets in their first-round matchup, but the Timberwolves play them well, and I can see it going six or seven games. 

I’m ultimately going to predict Thunder vs. Nuggets in the conference finals. In a thriller of a series, give me Oklahoma City to take down Denver and meet Boston in the Finals, where they prevail and become the first back-to-back champions since the late 2010s Golden State Warriors. Regardless, we should be in for an amazing playoffs, and we’ll be back to break it down soon! 

Teddy Benchley can be reached at tbenchley@wesleyan.edu.