Golf is a game of unpredictability, with luck dictating so much week-to-week. Narratives are often lies we tell ourselves to make sense of randomness. For example, take a look at my prediction for The American Express last week:
“The PGA Tour season is an eight-month hunt, and the apex predators don’t waste energy chasing early prey. They treat the opening months as a stalking period: sharpening tools, conserving energy, waiting for spring when the majors begin.” This was my justification for picking Haotong Li. Scottie Scheffler—the best player in the world—went on to win by four shots. So much for apex predators conserving energy.
Making golf predictions is a fool’s errand, but I’m doing it anyway. What follows are my picks for every 2026 PGA Tour tournament that matters.
Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines: Jake Knapp
Torrey Pines is a bomber’s paradise and a strategically mundane golf course. The fairways are narrow, the holes are long and straight with no curvature, and the rough is uniformly thick. The course will be soft, reducing it to a simple formula: blast it off the tee, fire at flags, and make 15-footers. It’s more of a paint-by-number than a blank canvas. It’s not my kind of golf, but it is Jake Knapps, who has thrived on these courses in the past.
Waste Management Open at TPC Scottsdale: Jordan Spieth
TPC Scottsdale is an excellent golf course and perhaps the most underrated on tour. It has treated Jordan Spieth well over the years. He’s finished tied for sixth or better in four of the last five seasons. Spieth underwent wrist surgery this offseason to finally address a nagging injury that plagued him for the better part of a decade. While expecting a return to his mid-2010s form (or even close to it) would be foolish, I do expect more consistent ball-striking in 2026 and a win.
Pebble Beach Pro Am: Tommy Fleetwood
It’s somewhat unfortunate that the highest-rated course on tour is playing in its worst condition. In February, the Monterey Peninsula sits at the tail end of the rainy season, so Pebble plays like target golf, losing much of the strategy baked into its original design. I won’t complain too much. Watching those dramatic Pebble Beach views while curled up in 20-degree weather is a very nice escape.
This was Rory McIlroy’s first win in his 2025 campaign. I expect this year’s winner to also take a win at this historic venue and run with it. Only Scheffler enters the year playing better golf than Tommy Fleetwood. There’s not much to say about Fleetwood; he’s world-class in every facet of the game. He got the monkey off his back in August, capturing his first PGA Tour win at the Tour Championship, and success seems inevitable for him in 2026.
Genesis Invitational at Riviera: Jason Day
Due to the Los Angeles wildfires last year, the Genesis was forced to skip Riviera (its home since 1999) and relocate to Torrey Pines. Fortunately, we’re back at George Thomas’ masterpiece, which is consistently my favorite non-major tournament of the year.
You’re going to miss greens at Riviera. Scrambling is at a premium, and many past winners boast some of the best short games in the world. The tournament has been friendly to Australians, with Adam Scott capturing two titles here and Aaron Baddeley, one of the greatest short-game players, winning in 2011. Jason Day is also an Australian who can chip with the best of them.
Cognizant Classic at PGA National: Daniel Berger
PGA National used to be one of the sternest tests on tour, with only three players reaching double digits under par from 2013 to 2022. As technology has continued spiraling out of control, it’s been massacred the past three years, with Knapp even shooting a 59 last year. Daniel Berger has seemingly fully recovered from the brutal back injury that derailed his 2023 and 2024 seasons. He’s well-rounded and feels due to get back in the winner’s circle.
Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill: Lucas Glover
If Bay Hill plays anything like it did last year, the top of the leaderboard will be littered with short, accurate players. That sounds like a Lucas Glover tournament to me…and we’ll be in the South.
The Players at TPC Sawgrass: Scottie Scheffler
Scheffler has been crowned the best since Tiger. The level he is playing at now, however, is much, much closer to Tiger than fans want to admit. Per Data Golf, Scheffler is 1.45 strokes better per round than the second-best player on tour (Fleetwood). That translates to almost six shots a tournament. To put it another way, Scheffler is like if Fleetwood started every tournament at six under par. Woods’ peak was better than this (and longer as of now), but Scheffler is also playing against deeper fields and in an era where technology makes it tougher to separate.
He won his first start of the 2026 season, and honestly, if we make it to The Players without another Scheffler win, it will be the talk of the week. Regardless, the Texan has always thrived at Sawgrass, and I expect him to grab his third Players title in four years.
Valspar Championship at Innisbrook: Viktor Hovland
Innisbrook has a thing for back-to-back champions. Paul Casey won in 2018 and 2019, and Sam Burns followed suit with consecutive victories. I’d be lying if I said I had any clue what version of Viktor Hovland we will see. That unpredictability might define his career. But Hovland is a world-class talent. There will be valleys, but when he finds a feel—which seems inevitable at some point each season—wins will follow.
Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park: Scottie Scheffler
Scheffler’s had two straight runners-up here…I don’t think we’ll see a third.
Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio: Davis Thompson
I predicted Davis Thompson would win three times last year. I’ll settle for one win in 2026.
The Masters at Augusta National: Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood’s history at Augusta National isn’t anything to write home about. While he hasn’t missed a cut since his debut, he has only one top-10 finish. Still, it’s a great fit for him on paper as it favors a right-to-left ball flight and requires an elite short game, and as I alluded to with my Pebble Beach prediction, I expect the Englishman to finally capture a major.
RBC Heritage at Harbour Town: Matt Kuchar
Harbour Town rewards precision over power, making it one of the tour’s most unique venues. Few have exploited it better than Matt Kuchar, who has one win and six other top-10s. He’s quietly playing solid golf (78th in Data Golf rankings) and will tee it up as a past champion. It’s been years since we’ve seen a grizzled veteran steal a tournament, but Stewart Cink proved it’s possible a few years ago at Harbour Town, capturing the title at 47. Kuchar is the same age now. If the stars align anywhere for a late-career win, it’s on this narrow, tree-lined layout.
Truist Championship at Quail Hollow: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
The Truist has historically been contested at Quail Hollow, though last year’s PGA Championship forced a temporary move to Philadelphia Cricket Club, where Sepp Straka claimed the title. We’re back at Quail Hollow now, and I’ve been waiting for the right spot to slot in Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen. I am buying all of the stock available in the 26-year-old Dane. He absolutely lashes at the golf ball, possessing one of the most violent swings I have ever seen. He hits it straight, too. RNP secured his PGA Tour card this past fall and followed it up with a win at the historic Royal Melbourne Golf Club. Since this is a signature event, he’ll likely need to qualify through the Aon Swings. If he gets in, though, Quail Hollow’s demand for ball striking is tailor-made for his game.
PGA Championship at Aronimink: Cameron Young
This will be our first look at Aronimink Golf Club since the 2020 Women’s PGA Championship, where Sei Young Kim won with a ball-striking masterclass in the final round. If the course avoids heavy rain in the lead-up, controlling the ball will again be paramount. Aronimink is expected to stretch beyond 7,300 yards despite being a par-70, 300 yards longer than when the BMW Championship was contested here in 2018. Keegan Bradley edged Justin Rose in a playoff at 20-under that week, with Xander Schauffele, McIlroy, and Fleetwood all cracking the top 10. Length rose to the top of the leaderboard, and if the greens firm up, expect that advantage to matter again.
Cameron Young is built for stages like this. He has six major top-10s and was Team USA’s best player at the Ryder Cup. A major victory in 2026 would elevate him to the top tier of the game.
CJ Cup at TPC Craig Ranch: Johnny Keefer
Read this great article on Keefer. He’s going to be a stud.
Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial: Harry Hall
Another place where it’s important to have good hands. Hall was quietly one of the most consistent guys last season, finishing the year with 12 top 10s in 13 starts.
The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
Scheffler will be going for a three-peat at Jack’s Place. The only reason he won those two years is that RNP wasn’t in the field. I am doubling down on the Dane to have a breakout 2026 season. Lad os gå!!
RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto: Rory McIlroy
McIlroy is a National Open killer. He’s captured the U.S., British, Scottish, Irish, Australian, Hong Kong, and Canadian Open (2x). I expect him to add a third Canadian Open at a third different course, as the Tour will be at TPC Toronto for a second straight year.
U.S. Open at Shinnecock: Rory McIlroy
Save St. Andrews, Shinnecock Hills is widely considered the best course that hosts professional golf tournaments. The last U.S. Open here saw Brooks Koepka win at over par, fending off Fleetwood’s final-round 63. The story of that week was Zach Johnson declaring the USGA had “lost the golf course,” a sentiment many of his peers echoed. One can only hope we see the world’s best in such a state of disarray, but that seems unlikely with how far gone technology is. Still, I am more excited for Shinnecock than any Major Championship since St. Andrews in 2022. Scheffler will be going for the career Grand Slam, and while I think he will contend, McIlroy will ride the momentum and grab his sixth major.
Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands: Ludvig Åberg
Åberg feels good for a win a year for the foreseeable future. His driver, while still lethal, wasn’t a superpower last year. Along with cleaning up his wedges, regaining this prowess will be key to his 2026 success.
John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run: Steven Fisk
This is always my favorite tournament to pick because I can basically throw any name out there. The average ranking of winners over the past eight years is 138. The current 138 is Steven Fisk. Let’s go with it!
Genesis Scottish Open at Renaissance Club: Rasmus Højgaard
You need to hit the ball far at the Renaissance Club. Rasmus Højgaard does just that and is slowly becoming one of the world’s premier putters.
Open Championship at Royal Birkdale: Robert MacIntyre
Birkdale is often labelled the fairest test in the Open rota. Each hole is defined by towering dunes that act like American trees, creating distinct corridors. The fairways are narrow, the second shots demand precision, and the greens, while approachable, punish misses with nasty trouble. Playing on the Irish Sea, it is rare to get a benign day at Southport. The architecture isn’t spectacular (comparatively), and it isn’t particularly funky, but it will identify the best golfer that week, and players will have to hit creative shots.
Augusta hasn’t treated Robert MacIntyre well, but he has had success in the other three majors, highlighted by a solo second at the U.S. Open last year and three top 10s in the Open Championship. Bob Mac emerged as one of the tour’s best putters. His wedge game lags, but his long iron play is world-class, and that’s what Birkdale rewards. It’s been 27 years since a Scot won a major, but that drought ends here.
As far as I am concerned, the season ends after the Open Championship. The “Midwest swing” leaves much to be desired, and the Tour still has a long way to go until I am captivated by the Playoffs. But in the pursuit of completeness, while recognizing I am already at 2,100 words, I will list out my predictions for the final six tournaments.
3M Open: Sam Ryder
Rocket Classic: Max Greyserman
Wyndham Championship: Justin Lower
FedEx St. Jude Championship: Patrick Reed
BMW Championship: Patrick Cantlay
TOUR Championship: Cameron Young
Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu.
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