One Month Takeaways: What We’ve Learned From the Beginning of the MLB Season

The MLB season has begun, and the first month of 2026 baseball action has provided many storylines. Some of these are expected, like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees continuing to be good. Others were less expected, like a return to MVP form for Mike Trout. Sports Editors Max Forstein ’27 and Ethan Lee ’26 are back to highlight some of the most interesting stories from the first month of action and to reflect on their pre-season hot takes. 

The Phillies and the Mets Are Struggling

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are mainstays in the top five highest payrolls in the MLB, and for the most part, it shows. The Phillies have consistently made the playoffs since 2022, and the Mets have emerged into contender status the last two seasons despite narrowly missing the playoffs in 2025. 

However, this season has seen both teams struggle early, as they sit at 8–12 and 7–15 at the time of writing.

The Phillies continue to run with the core players of their 2022 National League pennant–winning team, re-signing Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto this offseason to five- and three-year deals. Unfortunately, their aging core seems to have caught up with them, as the offense has gone dormant during the first month. Franchise cornerstone Bryce Harper is the lone producer—hitting .270 with a .527 slugging percentage—but his battery-mates have failed to generate momentum with their bats. It hurts that the starting pitching rotation has struggled to keep their opponents at bay. Ace Christopher Sanchez, the runner-up in NL Cy Young Award voting last year, has maintained his elite form, but Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, and Taijuan Walker all have 4+ earned run averages (ERA). The City of Brotherly Love is not feeling the love with their Fightin’s, and if they cannot return to form, it could signify the end of this era of Phillies’ baseball.

The Mets had one of the most active offseasons of any team, dropping franchise cornerstones in favor of strong free agency additions. 

Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Robert Jr. were all expected to join the Metropolitans and produce early. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened so far. After starting the season 7–4, the Mets are on a rough 11-game losing streak. To make matters worse, this stretch has seen their offense produce 4+ runs only twice. Add in an injury to highest-paid MLB player Juan Soto, and the Mets are not looking great on the offensive end. New ace Freddy Peralta has been solid so far, but inconsistency from David Peterson and Kodai Senga have hurt their cause again and again. With these struggles have come defensive issues, which Mets leadership thought they took care of this offseason; it appears, however, that they are seeing the disadvantages of playing multiple above-average players out of their natural position. Better health should improve the Mets and get them out of this rough stretch, but there is still much work to be done to return to their 2024 form. 

Young Stars Extended After First At-Bats

Heading into 2026, one of the most interesting award races was for Rookie of the Year. 

In the National League, it was Mets pitcher Nolan McLean, who showed glimpses of greatness, becoming the early favorite. In the American League, the same could be said for Cleveland Guardians outfielder Chase DeLauter and Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Trey Yesavage. Additionally, the arrivals of Japanese stars Munetaka Murakami (Chicago White Sox) and Tatsuya Imai (Houston Astros) were sure to get a lot of attention. However, it was the top two prospects from the minor leagues—Konnor Griffin and Kevin McGonigle—who turned heads early, both for their play and the pay it got them.

The Detroit Tigers hope the addition of shortstop Kevin McGonigle will help them in their search to return to the playoffs this year. McGonigle was a first-round pick for the Motor City Kitties in 2023, and his star potential throughout his minor league career led to him being ranked as the second-best prospect in baseball. After an impressive spring training, McGonigle earned a spot on the Tigers’ opening day roster and has since played in every game this season. He’s become one of the most consistent pieces on an impressive Detroit roster, hitting .312 with an OPS near .900. His incredible play on the left side of the infield earned him an 8-year, $150M contract extension with the Tigers, keeping him at Comerica Park long-term. 

While McGonigle was starting the year in the big leagues, top-ranked prospect Konnor Griffin started the year in the minor leagues. Griffin joined the Pittsburgh Pirates organization as the ninth pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, and, similar to the Tigers’ budding shortstop, he rose through the ranks of the minors with true star potential. It wasn’t long before the Pirates called him up to the big leagues, as Griffin made his major league debut on April 3. Griffin hasn’t had the early success that McGonigle has, but the Pirates—a franchise known for not spending money—were not messing around when it came to keeping Griffin in black and yellow for years to come. Only six days after his big league debut, Pittsburgh inked him to a 9-year, $140M contract extension. It’s the largest contract in franchise history, and there will certainly be sky-high expectations for Griffin as he continues his rookie campaign. 

Ok, I take back what I said about ABS…

A few weeks ago, I claimed in an article that the newly introduced Automated Ball-Strike system (ABS) would not heavily impact major league baseball. A few weeks in, I’m rethinking.

The major point that led me to believe that ABS would be a nonfactor in the game is how low the overturn rate was: just over 50%. I thought that would lead teams to be incredibly careful and save them only for high-leverage situations. Instead, teams have frequently used them up, with the Minnesota Twins making 65 challenges in their first 21 games and succeeding at a 55% clip. 

Where I thought teams would end games with banked challenges remaining, teams like Minnesota are instead using them and having an effect on at-bat outcomes league wide. 

With the strike zone tightened, say goodbye to those big momentum, strike-three calls on a low breaking ball. That at-bat turns into a walk instead, and because of this, the league-wide walk rate is the highest it has been since 1950. 

While that may benefit batters, batting average continues to plummet, sitting at .238, which would be the second-lowest mark in baseball history (.237 in 1968). With defenses having the advantage in successful overturns—59% vs. 47% for batters—I can’t help thinking ABS might have something to do with that.

I was right that there will not be a challenge in every other at-bat, but ABS is fundamentally changing the outcomes of at-bats, and whether that change is a positive or negative for the game is still yet to be determined.

Last year analysts loved Ben Rice, and this year everyone does

New York Yankees first baseman Ben Rice had a confusing 2025. He put up great numbers in his first full season in pinstripes with a 130 OPS+ and 26 homers, but every analytic stat said he should have done much better.

Rice was in the 95th percentile for exit velocity, 97th for hard hit percentage, 94th for expected batting average, and 97th for expected slugging percentage. His .557 expected slugging percentage would have ranked sixth among all big leaguers, putting him up there with his teammate Aaron Judge as one of the premier sluggers in the game. Instead, he slugged .499 with a .255 batting average, also significantly below his .283 expected. The sum of this made Rice the unluckiest hitter of 2025, turning his great season into a merely good one.

This year, Rice is leaving nothing up to chance. In 21 games played, Rice is slashing a ridiculous .338/.476/.800, leading MLB in on-base percentage and slugging while leading the American League in batting average. He has also added eight dingers, tied for third, and one in each of his last three games. While I obviously wouldn’t expect this insane level of production to continue for the entire year, Rice has shown that the analytics did not lie: He is a star. I would not be surprised if he ends up in the top-five for American League MVP this year and cements himself as Aaron Judge’s running mate in the Bronx.

Max Forstein can be reached at mforstein@wesleyan.edu.

Ethan Lee can be reached at ejlee@wesleyan.edu.