The NFL’s year-to-year variance is unmatched. The eight teams that reached the divisional round last year combined to win three playoff games this season. The two teams that are playing in the Super Bowl had the same projected win total as the Cardinals and Dolphins. Between injuries, roster turnover, and the volatility of a 17-game season, Dan Campbell’s quote after losing the NFC Championship two years ago rings true: “We might not be here again.” That sentiment hangs over every contender, and it’s what makes a Super Bowl matchup between two unproven teams feel less like an arrival and more like a team cashing in before the window shifts.
So how did they get here? And what decides it on Sunday? We talked through the biggest questions.
1. Sam, what was the key to New England getting here?
The Patriots conducted the most aggressive free agency in history, spending over $200 million in contracts. They added elite talent at nearly every position group. Their big signings—Stefon Diggs, Carlton Davis III, Morgan Moses, Milton Williams—have been excellent, while depth additions like K’Lavon Chaisson, Mack Hollins, and fourth-round pick Craig Woodson have exceeded expectations. You can debate team-building philosophies all day, but the most important part is hitting on your acquisitions, and the Patriots did that at a remarkably high rate.
Excepting Drake Maye and Christian Gonzalez, they lack superstars. But outside of their Super Bowl opponent, they’ve constructed the most balanced roster in football. Not a single position group across offense, defense, or special teams is considered below average. When you lack star power, you need to win games in various ways. For most of the season, the Patriots relied on their high-powered passing attack. When the weather turned cold in the final five weeks, their rushing attack became the most efficient in football. In the playoffs, it’s been the defense capitalizing on brutal conditions and mediocre opposing quarterbacks to create havoc.
This isn’t about getting lucky with different units stepping up week to week. Michael Vrabel and Joshua McDaniels have seen every conceivable game script. They are probably the best week-to-week coaching combo in the league. They know which levers to pull and when, and they have a roster with the versatility to execute whatever the moment demands.
2. I’ll throw it back at you Teddy, how did the Seahawks get here?
Following a 10–7 2024 campaign under first-year Head Coach Mike Macdonald, Seattle had an offseason that was under discussed but transformative. They dealt away the older Eugene Cyril “Geno” Smith III in favor of signing the younger Samuel Darnold to an affordable 3-year, $100 million deal. They created a new receiving core, releasing franchise veteran Tyler Lockett and trading star DeKaylin “DK” Metcalf to make way for the blossoming Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN). They picked up Grey Zabel in the first round of the draft to shore up their offensive line, while also taking safety Nicholas Emmanwori to add to an already potent defense. The Seahawks were clearly entering a new era, one where they were betting on Darnold’s talent and Macdonald’s defensive genius.
There’s been no better bet in the NFL this year. The offense has shone at points, but the driving force for this team is Macdonald’s defense. Reminiscent of Seattle’s Legion of Boom in the 2010s, these Seahawks have talent everywhere, whether it’s Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy Jr. on the line, Ernest Jones IV at the linebacker slot, or Emmanwori, Devon Witherspoon, and Tariq Woolen anchoring the secondary. Seattle allowed just 17.2 points per game in 2025, the fewest in the NFL, despite playing in a division with offensive powerhouses like the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. The Seahawks are bringing the league’s best defense, one of the game’s brightest young coaches, and a quarterback who’s rolling into this year’s Super Bowl.
3. Sam, everyone’s jumping on the Darnold train, did his performance against the Rams change your opinion on him?
No, not really. Obviously, seeing him actually do it means something, but this point from ESPN’s Ben Solak encapsulates my feelings:
“An awkward reality of NFL player performance is that we want our average players—the 19th-best quarterback, 14th-best offensive tackle and 17th-best kicker—to have average games. But they don’t. They have spectacular games and then terrible ones. They are average in the aggregate, but their individual performances are volatile, and in the case of some players, highly volatile.”
Darnold is one of those highly volatile players. He was an MVP candidate through the first half of the season and ranked 29th in QB Rating over the back half. In his first playoff game, he turned the ball over twice and got sacked nine times. Last week against the Rams, he threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns. Anyone who labeled Darnold a playoff choker after the Vikings game was being disingenuous, just like anyone claiming last week proved he’s a gamer.
My take on Darnold is similar to a lot of NFL quarterbacks: He can’t survive in a bad offense, but when given a proper support system, he can be above average. We’ll talk about how New England can pressure him into mistakes, but the honest answer is that, to an extent, it’s random. That’s the nature of Sam Darnold.
4. I’ll again hit you back. Did Maye’s sketchy playoff performance discourage you and what do you expect we’ll see from him Sunday?
I’m a little torn here, but I ultimately think Maye puts up a solid statline. Yes, he’s played quite poorly throughout these playoffs and looked uncomfortable against elite defenses, exactly what Seattle is. But I do think we’ll see his best game of the postseason on Sunday. For one, I expect his offensive line to play at least a little bit better than they have so far; Seattle is ferocious, but between Houston and Denver, Maye and his line have already had experience against elite rushing attacks. I also think we can’t underrate the weather he’s had to go through; the entire second half of Denver was a blizzard, while the playoff home games he played in New England were in basically freezing temperatures, a far cry from the beautiful warmth of Santa Clara. But most of all, I have faith that Maye’s talent and 2025 regular season will show a bit in the Super Bowl; as easy as his schedule was, the production wasn’t a fluke. I don’t think he’s going to dominate, but I believe Maye will play a solid game on Sunday and will begin to show comfort in a playoff environment.
5. Let’s get more granular Sam, who are the X-factors for the Patriots?
For the Patriots, it’s Milton Williams and Christian Barmore who make up the most formidable interior duo in the league.
Getting pressure on Sam Darnold is a massive key to this game. According to Pro Football Focus, Darnold grades out at 49.3 under pressure this season (26th in the NFL) compared to 91.7 from a clean pocket (sixth). The weakness of Seattle’s offensive line is inside, where the Patriots are strongest. Anthony Bradford has given up a 15.3% pressure rate this postseason, and New England will attack that matchup relentlessly. It will be a chess match: The Patriots will rely on stunts and simulated pressure to isolate Bradford, while Seattle will try to move Darnold outside the pocket.
Getting pressure is especially critical because Seattle has matchup advantages everywhere. Rashid Shaheed’s speed will test Carlton Davis III, who’s excellent in using physicality at the line but can get beaten vertically when receivers win off the press. Marcus Jones is solid in the slot but struggles against physical receivers, and Cooper Kupp is one of the most physical slot guys in football. Kenneth Walker III’s speed in space will challenge the Patriots’ linebackers, who are strong against the run but vulnerable in the open field. And JSN is, for my money, the best receiver in football. If Darnold has time to sit in the pocket and work through his progressions, it’s going to be a long night for New England’s secondary. If the Patriots bring him down four times, though, they’ll tie the 1984 49ers for most sacks in a single postseason, and likely win the Super Bowl.
6. What about for the Seahawks?
Kenneth Walker has been fantastic in the playoffs, totaling 256 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over two games. He’ll have opportunities to make a splash in the passing game. The Patriots will need to run heavy fronts to match Seattle’s 12 personnel, which gives Klint Kubiak opportunities to dial up screens and dump offs where Walker can use his speed and elusiveness in space. He’s an excellent pure receiver, too, and New England’s outside linebackers lack the speed to stay with him.
His biggest responsibility, though, is on early downs. The last two games have been outliers in Walker’s history as a bellcow. He struggles inside the tackles, often moving laterally rather than attacking downhill and settling for minimal gains. On a play like 2nd and 6, Walker needs to grind out those two yards to avoid putting Seattle in obvious passing situations. The Patriots have a huge advantage when Seattle is in must-pass situations, and their defensive tackles can pin their ears back and rush after Darnold. When Seattle runs inside on first and second down, Walker needs to grind out positive yards and keep them on schedule.
7. Alright, last one before score predictions, what’s a matchup you’re looking out for?
I’m intrigued to see how New England’s offensive line holds up against Seattle’s ferocious defensive line. The Seahawks can throw multiple elite rushers at opposing quarterbacks, whether that’s Williams, Murphy, or DeMarcus Lawrence. We saw them affect Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford multiple times throughout the NFC championship game. On the other end, the Patriots pass protection is one of the weaker parts of their team. They were 23rd in sacks and 26th in pressure rate throughout the regular season, and haven’t brought their best stuff so far in the playoffs; while Maye hasn’t played well, we can attribute at least some of his struggles to his line’s subpar showings against strong defenses. First round rookie William Campbell, in particular, has struggled: While he had a strong regular season, a right knee injury suffered late into the year seemed to affect his playoff performance. Macdonald’s defense scheme depends on his line being able to get pressure without sending extra bodies; this strategy allows Seattle’s immense secondary talent to shine and make plays. If the Seahawks defensive line can pressure Maye and make him uncomfortable, this should be a decisive Seattle win. But if Campbell and company can hold up, the Patriots have a very real chance.
8. Who wins Super Bowl LX?
Teddy: Everyone’s got Seattle for this game, and rightfully so. The Seahawks have probably the best overall roster in the NFL, and they’ve won massive games against elite opponents all year long. Darnold looks great, JSN seems unstoppable, and their defense is as good as it gets. Like I said, if their D line can get to Maye early, this one will be over quickly. But as relatively light as their path has been, I’d be surprised if New England flops in this one. Vrabel is going to get his guys fired up and amped as the underdogs, and I think Maye and the offense will find some success against Seattle. My main concern is that Darnold and the Seattle offense will tear up the Patriots on the other end. I think New England’s defense has looked a little better than they actually are, and I could see the Seattle offensive line handling their lack of pass rush beyond Milton Williams. If Seattle moves the ball consistently and puts up points, that allows Macdonald to be more aggressive. I can’t believe I’m writing that I think Sam Darnold will win Super Bowl MVP. Seahawks 30, Patriots 24
Sam: Everyone is crowning Seattle already. 47 of ESPN’s 58 analysts picked Seattle. The narrative all season has been that no team separated from the pack, so while Seattle clearly has the advantage, this is at best a 70–30 game for the Seahawks.
I’m still picking the Seahawks. There are too many areas where the Patriots are at a disadvantage. New England is going to struggle moving the ball on the ground. Seattle’s skill players will create explosive plays. Teddy did an excellent job outlining the challenges the Patriots’ offense faces against a schematically dominant defense. The Patriots will have levers to pull, and football contains enough randomness (fumble bounces, tipped passes, players slipping) that nothing’s guaranteed. But Seattle wins this more often than not. Seahawks 24, Patriots 19
Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu.
Teddy Benchley can be reached at tbenchley@wesleyan.edu.
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