I grew up following basketball always believing that bigger is better. That is, I assumed that the team with the dominant power player would usually win because they would take so many more high percentage shots than their opposition. This may have been idiotic to me as Michael Jordan’s Bulls were regularly winning NBA titles by beating teams led by star power forwards such as Charles Barkley, Shawn Kemp, and Karl Malone but I was able to dismiss the example of the Bulls as an anomaly led by a once-in-a-lifetime talent. Instead, I chose to focus more on the championship teams carried by star big men like Hakeem Olajuwon, Tim Duncan, and Shaquille O’Neil.
However, when I look around the NBA right now, it’s hard to hold firm to my contention about power players dominating the game. The NBA has turned into basically a perimeter-dominated league. Most people would say that the leading five candidates for MVP in some order are Steve Nash, Lebron James, Gilbert Arenas, Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant. Each of these players averages at least two three-point attempts a game. In fact, the perimeter-oriented Nowitzki is the only one of the league’s top 11 scorers who plays power forward or center.
There are a number of reasons for the dramatic success of guards and small forwards in the NBA. First of all, there were a number of rule changes enacted during the 2001-2002 season that were designed to improve the flow of the game that have made it much more difficult to defend dominant dribblers. Referees were told to allow less contact on the perimeter and a new defensive three-second violation was added to prevent centers from clogging up the lane. Also, the success of “up-tempo” teams such as the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns has made running basketball the current vogue in the NBA right now, a style most effectively implemented with faster and more athletic players.
This trend of perimeter domination does not look to be dying anytime soon. Guards like James and Dwayne Wade are unquestionably the league’s two biggest young stars.
All this points to an interesting question when considering this year’s rookie draft: who should go number one, center Greg Oden or guard Kevin Durant? Since he entered high school, it was assumed that the prodigiously talented Oden would be the first pick of the draft whenever he decided to enter the NBA. However, in a league that is increasingly favoring smaller, more athletic players, the exiting 6’8” University of Texas star Durant now looks like an equally compelling choice.
Regardless of who is drafted first in April, the NBA is undisputedly becoming a smaller league. The average height this year dipped below 6’7” for the first time in 20 years. That said, future power forwards are probably practicing more three pointers than they used to.
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