The night of Nov. 8, 2016 was supposed to be a coronation for Hillary Clinton, then-Democratic nominee for President of the United States. However, the Clinton supporters who had gathered at the Jacob Javits Convention Center in New York City, certain that the night would end in celebration, instead left with a feeling of fear and shock. On Nov. 9, at 2:29 a.m., Donald Trump was declared the president-elect.
In the eight years since Clinton’s defeat, many have asked, “What happened?” Some have theorized that it was the Russian internet bots who convinced your uncle that Clinton had a lair with children in the basement of a pizzeria. Others have argued the Comey letter or Clinton’s email scandal were responsible for the loss. In reality, the answer is 77,744 people—the margin of Donald Trump’s victory in the Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Clinton went into the general election as if she were a member of the 1998 New York Yankees and Trump was a player on a Little League team: Her victory was virtually a guarantee. As a result, Clinton ran her campaign like a football coach looking to run up the score on a bitter rival. She spent crucial campaign funds on states like Utah and Texas but neglected to campaign even once in Wisconsin. Clinton’s campaign had one staff member committed to rural outreach, and this person was based in the heartland of America: Brooklyn, N.Y. Alternatively, Trump held 26 campaign rallies in the Blue Wall states in the months after clinching the Republican nomination for president.
“Sadly, the American dream is dead,” Trump said when he rode down the escalator and announced his candidacy for president in June 2015, making a statement that connected with millions of Americans. “But if I get elected president I will bring it back bigger and better and stronger than ever before, and we will make America great again.”
Trump was correct in identifying that the American dream was evaporating for millions of Americans, particularly in the Blue Wall states: a drop in life expectancy, an increase in the number of drug overdoses, and a rise in financial insecurity. Why let facts get in the way of a good story, though! Trump was wrong in his diagnosis of the cause of the problem. He resorted to xenophobia, blaming Mexicans, whom he believed were “bringing drugs, crime, and rap[e].”
In reality, the automation and outsourcing of blue-collar jobs were responsible for the decline in quality of life for millions of Americans. Trump at least spoke to these voters and their concerns. Clinton’s response was that “America never stopped being great.” This was a message as appealing to struggling Americans as telling miners who lost their jobs that they could learn to code!
This election feels a little different: If I were a campaign manager, I would much rather be in the current position of Kamala Harris than Donald Trump. However, this election is far from over. If the difference between polling and the actual results is the same as in 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump would win the presidency. Furthermore, the electoral college gives significant value to rural voters—a significant proportion of which are working class. For the next month, you will be unable to escape the cable news interviews with voters in a diner in small-town Pennsylvania, but those are the people that will decide the election.
“[Harris] is not going to win this election, or she is going to have a really hard time unless she begins to speak forcefully about the needs of the long-neglected working class of this country,” Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders said in July.
Progressive filmmaker Michael Moore and 2020 Democratic candidate Andrew Yang, both supporters of Harris, have also raised concerns about this trend facing Democrats from working-class voters.
For the first time in six presidential elections, The International Brotherhood of Teamsters, a labor union primarily representing truck drivers and warehouse workers, declined to endorse the Democratic nominee. Internal polling among their members found that 58% supported Trump while 31% supported Harris. The International Longshoremen’s Association, a union representing maritime workers which recently went on a brief strike, has also declined to back Harris despite endorsing Biden in 2020.
Harris is unlikely to win a majority of working-class voters, but how can she at least cut her losses? Trump won in 2016 by simply mentioning the problems facing working-class Americans. For Democrats to win back these voters, it starts with actually talking about the issues facing them. A study of candidate statements from Democrats running for federal office in 2022 found that only 6% of public statements included the phrases “workers,” “wages,” “jobs,” “working families,” and “costs.”
However, it goes further than just mentioning the issues. Democrats need to try to win the battle on policy. Many of Trump’s “solutions” are simply turning back the clock: mercantilism or bringing the lost jobs back. Harris should discuss issues facing the working class and relate them to 21st-century solutions. There are a number of common sense solutions that Harris could embrace to win working-class voters: reducing unnecessary college degree requirements for government jobs, expanding the child tax credit, raising the minimum wage, investing in public-private partnership job training programs, and reforming the social safety net to reduce benefits cliffs that ultimately hurt financial recipients.
Harris has multiple paths to win the White House, and it is possible that she can win the election without the backing of working-class voters. She could further galvanize turnout from suburban voters or increase turnout among young voters. However, history shows that the election will run through the Blue Wall states. Harris must learn from Clinton’s mistake and focus on winning back the working class. The election will be decided by Hershey, not the Hamptons; Wayne, not Washington, D.C.; and Milwaukee, not Manhattan.
Blake Fox is a member of the class of 2026 and can be reached at bfox@wesleyan.edu.
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