As WNBA players shake off the dust from the Olympic break, the 2024 regular season is rolling on toward the playoffs. Now is a good time to check in with the W and make some predictions about what the postseason will bring.

The New York Liberty Will Win the WNBA Finals

There’s a case to be made that the New York Liberty are the WNBA’s headline story. The Liberty have not won a league title in all 27 years of their existence. They came close last year, but lost in the finals to the Las Vegas Aces.

But heading into this season’s lengthy All-Star and Olympic breaks in July, the Liberty boasted a league-high 21–4 record. They’ve shown no sign of slowing down on the other side of the break, once again leading the league with a 28–6 record. New York was also the first team to clinch a playoff spot on Saturday, Aug. 17.

Part of what ultimately went wrong for the Liberty last year—despite their “superteam” status—was a lack of cohesion. But this season, their superteam roster is beginning to gel in earnest.

While big names like Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart often dominate coverage of New York, let’s not forget Jonquel Jones, who is shining for the Liberty. Averaging just shy of a double-double this season, Jones currently boasts the W’s second-highest effective field goal percentage (61.7%) among players who play at least 25 minutes a game. Her efficiency is just one of the things that makes her so valuable; she also has a surprising ability to pass the basketball. When you’ve got an offensive facilitator who also happens to be 6’6”, no one’s safe.

Jones and the Liberty have shown impressive consistency this season. Assuming they can stay healthy, it seems likely that no team will be able to stop them from going all the way.

A’ja Wilson is the Best Player in the WNBA, but That Still Might Not Be Enough for the Las Vegas Aces

A’ja Wilson has already won Rookie of the Year, two WNBA championships, an Olympic gold medal, and a pair of league MVPs. In her sixth year with the league, the Las Vegas forward is far and away the best player active in the W.

Wilson sat out of the Aces’ game against the Liberty Sunday, with an ankle injury that Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon described as a short-term tweak. If the injury really is just a tweak, Wilson remains the shoo-in for this year’s MVP. She’s averaging a staggering 27.3 points—on track to be the highest in a single season in league history—and 11.9 rebounds per game. She’s already only 11 points away from setting a record for the most points scored in a single WNBA season. 

Numbers like these are standard fare for Wilson, who began making waves in the WNBA as soon as she was drafted no. 1 out of South Carolina in 2018. But above all else, it’s the consistency she’s shown over her six years in the league that marks her as a superstar.

Is Wilson’s performance enough to carry the Aces to the WNBA finals? The Aces lost their last game before the All-Star and Olympic breaks, and came out of the breaks with a 2–4 record. They then saw a four-game win streak before falling to the Liberty on Sunday. The streak was enough to propel Las Vegas into fourth place overall, which is by no means bad, but it’s a long way to fall for a team that breezed their way through the postseason last year.

Counterintuitively, Sunday was a bit of a bright spot for the Aces. Las Vegas had lost twice to New York already this season, suffering 67–79 and 82–90 losses, respectively. On Sunday, the Aces lost by only four points (71–75) and did so without Wilson.

The Chicago Sky Will Miss the WNBA Playoffs

Chicago Sky rookie Angel Reese announced Saturday night that she would miss the remainder of the WNBA season due to a wrist injury. Reese’s injury not only marks the end of a competitive Rookie of the Year race with the Indiana Fever’s Caitlin Clark; it also deals a blow to a Chicago team already struggling to hold onto the eighth and final WNBA playoff spot.

Reese was averaging 13.6 points and 13.1 rebounds per game before her injury. She set the league single-season total rebounding record, recorded 15 consecutive double-doubles, and became the first player in the history of the W to record three consecutive games with 20+ rebounds. 

Her loss will be huge for the 13–22 Sky, who underwent a seven-game skid before beating the Los Angeles Sparks on Friday night. Now the Sky must fend off the no. 9 overall Atlanta Dream (12–23) and the no. 10 overall Washington Mystics (11–24) in order to claim a playoff spot. 

Although Chicago has been blessed with a fairly forgiving schedule for their last few games of the year, they do take on the no. 2 overall Minnesota Lynx this Friday. It’s a tough matchup under the best of circumstances, and without Reese, the Sky are facing even worse odds.

Capping Off a Historic Season

The 2024 WNBA season arrived on the heels of a record-breaking NCAA tournament and a rising tide of enthusiasm for women’s basketball. The season has lived up to the hype: Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese have shattered league records as rookies, while established players have continued to dominate.

The playoffs promise to be as exciting as the regular season. While some outcomes seem assured—the Liberty, Connecticut Sun, and Minnesota Lynx will most likely make deep runs—others are up in the air. Could Clark lead the Indiana Fever, who finished dead last in 2023, to a league title? Could A’ja Wilson’s injury worsen, sidelining the Aces?

There are no guarantees in a league as young and talented as the WNBA. You’ll just have to tune into the playoffs to find out what happens next. 

The WNBA regular season concludes on Thursday, Sept. 19 and the playoffs begin on Sunday, Sept. 22.

Audrey Nelson can be reached at aanelson@wesleyan.edu.