With the NFL season wrapping up, it is officially draft season. This upcoming draft expects to see three quarterbacks taken in the top five, with University of Southern California (USC) product Caleb Williams as the favorite to go first overall. I decided to dive into some Caleb Williams tape, watching the full game tape from his games against Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Notre Dame, and San Jose State.

In a recent article, I explored how Patrick Mahomes redefined the prototype for NFL quarterbacks. Gone are the days when front offices sought traditional pocket-passers who excelled in reading defenses. Instead, they are looking for athletes who can extend plays and thrive in unstructured situations. Caleb Williams epitomizes this evolving archetype, making him the odds-on-favorite to go first overall. 

Williams committed to Oklahoma as a four-star recruit, where he spent the first year and a half backing up Spencer Rattler. The D.C. native even got his turn in the Red River Rivalry, ripping off a 66-yard touchdown run on 4th and 1 before leading Oklahoma to a 21-point comeback in one of the best wins in program history. He finished out the year with the Sooners before following head coach Lincoln Riley to USC, highlighted by winning the Heisman Trophy in 2022. 

Williams is not just a Mahomes prototype; he is the closest thing to the Chiefs quarterback we have ever seen. He can hit any spot on the field, making throws from various arm angles and off-platform when needed. He has great timing and anticipation, especially on short to intermediate routes, consistently hitting his receivers in stride. 

In this play against Nevada, Williams notices the lineman closing in on him, so he contorts his arm and throws it sidearm around the defender, hitting his receiver in stride and allowing him to pick up yards after the catch (YAC). 

Williams has a great feel for the game. Riley calls for a swing pass to the right, but the running back isn’t open. Williams quickly identifies his slot receiver’s imminent opening and the Nevada defender’s free rush. He patiently retreats into the pocket, waiting until his receiver is open, before delivering a perfectly placed touch pass that connects with the receiver in stride, allowing him to race to the end zone for a touchdown.

What sets Williams apart, though, is his athletic ability. His running technique resembles a fusion of Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, showcasing a remarkable blend of power, speed, and finesse that challenges opposing defenses. Possessing lower body strength reminiscent of a running back, he exhibits both agility and precision in navigating open spaces without resorting to recklessness.

In the Pac-12 Championship game against Utah, Riley calls a read option. Williams elects to keep it, but his tight end gets knocked down, forcing him to cut back toward the middle of the field. Displaying his strength, he runs through two defenders before executing a smooth juke and then outrunning defenders for a 60+ yard gain.

Williams, while dynamic as a runner, demonstrates maturity by preferring to use his legs to extend plays and make throws rather than solely relying on running the ball, a trait not often seen in elite running quarterbacks straight out of college.

On this first downplay against Nevada, Riley dials up a classic post-wheel concept. The Y-receiver stays in the flat while the X-receiver runs a post and the A-receiver runs a delayed wheel. All three routes are covered by the Wolfpack, and Williams has a brief moment where there is a running lane that would produce 7+ yards. Instead, he steps up in the pocket and scrambles to the right, keeping his eyes downfield and instructing his receiver who comes back to the ball where he delivers a strike for a 15-yard gain.

Williams uses his athletic ability in the pocket, evading pressure with slippery movements and upper-body strength that allows him to shrug defensive linemen and blitzers off him. He can outrun any linemen and most linebackers to the point where he can escape almost any pocket, utilizing his creativity and superb on-the-run passing ability. 

Against Oregon, Riley is trying to set up a play-action deep shot, but Williams doesn’t like what he sees. He takes off toward the right sideline, and despite the linebacker having the angle and leverage, Williams outruns him, and even at full speed he is somehow able to slow down his momentum enough to flick the ball over the cornerback’s head for an eight-yard gain.

Williams is not without his faults, and frankly he has more flaws than most number-one picks of the past. Although he has immense arm strength, Williams has struggled with the deep ball over the years. When he connects, it is a thing of beauty, but he has a propensity to overthrow go balls.

The main gripe people have with Williams is that he holds the ball too long. When his first read is not open, or he feels the pocket collapsing, he has at times displayed a tendency to fall back on his improvisational skills and try to make a play instead of working to his second and third options. 

Against Washington, USC empties the backfield and runs a standard curls concept. Williams’ first read is open for an easy five-yard gain, but he elects to try to escape the pocket. This is something he has gotten away with in the past, but he doesn’t get away with it here, and he certainly won’t get away with it at the pro level. 

While Williams has incredible pocket awareness and can escape pockets that only a few NFL quarterbacks can, he occasionally falls victim to his own greed, leading to pivotal mistakes. In the second quarter against Oregon, USC initiates a play action that takes too long to unfold, resulting in a rapidly collapsing pocket that forces Williams off his intended spot. As he scrambles to the right, he attempts a spin move but loses his footing, slipping to the ground momentarily. Rather than conceding the play by going down, he rises to his feet and ends up fumbling the ball. Despite having multiple opportunities to throw the ball away or accept the sack, Williams opts to try salvaging the situation, ultimately leading to a turnover. While he has displayed impressive football IQ in the past, there remains room for improvement in his decision-making, which can be refined with appropriate coaching.

Williams occasionally displays skittish behavior, but the severity of this situation is exacerbated by USC’s offensive strategy, which primarily relies on one- and two-read concepts.

Facing Nevada, USC lines up with trips and sends all three receivers on vertical routes to clear out for an in-route from the opposite receiver, but it’s covered up. With the running back in the flat also covered, Williams is forced to evade the pocket, which he does perfectly, delivering a beautifully placed pass 25 yards downfield to his receiver. These plays have earned him a reputation for being too hasty to flee the pocket, but they are simply the repercussions of operating within one-read concepts.

Another one of Williams’ weaknesses is his height. He is listed as 6’1”, but it is believed he is actually 6’0”. As a result, he has had a concerning amount of passes over the middle batted down. Here against Notre Dame, the pocket collapses on Williams, who does a good job stepping up in the pocket, but his pass is tipped, and an Irish linebacker picks it off.

This is the chief reason why he is not in the same conversation as John Elway, Trevor Lawrence, or Andrew Luck were as prospects. We’ve seen players six feet and shorter like Bryce Young and Baker Mayfield struggle, but we have also seen guys like Russell Wilson and Drew Brees form hall-fame careers, despite their lack of size. 

While some areas need improvement, no prospect has ever been flawless. Williams’ exceptional blend of raw athletic prowess and arm talent is simply too enticing to overlook. While there may be another quarterback in this class who is not far behind, it would be foolish for Chicago (or whichever team holds the #1 pick) to pass on Caleb Williams.

Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu.