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As we enter October, we find ourselves with another basketball season upon us! After crowning the Golden State Warriors champions once again, hoops fans suffered through a long and grueling summer with nothing to watch. There was the Summer League, yes, and also the typical off-season drama (e.g. literally everything that happened with the Brooklyn Nets), but truly nothing beats NBA basketball. Thus, with the season starting in about two weeks, we’re here to give our opinions on four major questions about this upcoming year. 

Who will be MVP of the 2022–23 season? 

Sam: Luka Dončić entered the NBA at the ripe age of 19 and has been one of the best players in the league since. After multiple legendary playoff performances, Dončić has established himself as one of the top postseason players not only today, but in NBA history. Dončić is not particularly athletic, but his quick first step and ability to find the holes in the defense is what allows him to be so dominant. Throughout his career, Dončić has always seemed out of shape and started the season slow, which holds him back from winning MVP. But this September, Dončić participated in the Eurobasket tournament, and these summer reps should help him be more physically and mentally ready to start the season. The Mavericks finished fourth in the Western Conference last season, and, if Dončić can lead them to a similar record and continue filling the stat sheet, he could finally add an MVP to his already impressive career accomplishments.

Teddy: I love Nikola Jokić, but given that no one has won three MVPs in a row since Larry Bird in the 1980s, it looks like we are heading for a different winner this year. With that, my prediction for this year’s MVP is a familiar face: Giannis Antetokounmpo. Antetokounmpo is entering into the LeBron James territory where we know how good he is, but we get bored of recognizing it year after year—he averaged 29.9 points per game, 11.6 rebounds per game, and 5.8 assists per game last year, yet he finished third in MVP voting behind Jokić and Joel Embiid. Voter fatigue is real. That being said, I think this is the year Antetokounmpo reasserts his dominance and captures his third MVP award. He’s played highly competitive basketball recently, having represented Greece in Eurobasket (which I suggest you go back and watch because it was awesome), and he’s also fully motivated after a second-round loss in the playoffs last year. Expect a crazy season from the Greek Freak where he builds on his ever-expanding Hall of Fame resume. 

Which team will overachieve this year? 

Sam: After reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020–2021, the Atlanta Hawks had a disappointing 21–22 campaign, finishing ninth in the standings. Their struggles were in no part Trae Young’s fault, as the star guard led the league in total points and assists. Clint Capela, John Collins, and Bogdan Bogdanović were solid players, but the Hawks still lacked a star running mate for Young. They seemingly solved this problem in the off-season, making a splash by trading for star point guard Dejounte Murray. Murray averaged 21 points, eight rebounds, and nine assists last year for the San Antonio Spurs, but his most significant impact will be on the defensive end; he was one of three players last season with more steals than fouls and his defensive prowess should help hide Young’s defensive weaknesses. Murray’s playmaking will also allow Young to play off-ball more, where Young’s incredible shooting skills could be more impactful (look at what Steph Curry has done for the past decade). Led by their star backcourt, the Hawks are poised to have a bounce-back year and eclipse 50 wins.

Teddy: I want to start by saying I’m incredibly biased in my response to this question. I may be a very big New York Knicks fan, but I also, objectively as possible, think they have the potential to surprise a lot of people this year. The Knicks had a disappointing season in 21–22, missing the playoffs in the East after surging to the fourth seed the year before. But after a long offseason, they’re back with a key new face: Jalen Brunson. Brunson made a name for himself last postseason with the Dallas Mavericks, carrying the team when Dončić was out and being a reliable second option when Dončić was in. But real ones (like people who had him on their fantasy basketball team) know that Brunson was actually hooping in the regular season too, and Knicks fans are hoping that he can bring some of that magic with him to New York. Lord knows the team needs it. Julius Randle, a 2020–21 All-Star, took a major step back last year in almost every statistical category, and rising star RJ Barrett, despite reaching 20 points per game for the first time in his career, continued to struggle with efficiency and playmaking. As a true point guard who can run the offense, Brunson could make life easier for Barrett and Randle while also getting better looks for developing youngsters Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, and Quentin Grimes. Could the Knicks make a deep run in the playoffs? Probably not. But could they be a good team that makes some noise in a playoff series? Please happen. Please happen. Please happen.

Which team will disappoint this year? 

Sam: With their season on the line in last year’s playoffs, the Phoenix Suns delivered one of the most pitiful team performances ever, losing a Game 7 at home by 33 to the underdog Mavericks. Led by their star backcourt featuring Devin Booker and Chris Paul, the Suns have made two straight deep playoff runs, but as they go into the 2022–2023 season, many question marks surround the team. Despite his contribution to the Suns’ rise, Paul is in the twilight of his career, and his decline will happen sooner rather than later. Young center Deandre Ayton saw his minutes decrease in the playoffs. He and head coach Monty Williams reportedly have a rocky relationship. Solid role player Jae Crowder is also reportedly unhappy and has requested a trade. There are significant reasons to expect a regression, and that’s not even mentioning the competition around Phoenix; injuries plagued many of the Western Conference teams the past couple of years, but with the Clippers, Nuggets, Lakers, and Pelicans now healthy the Suns’ path is much tougher. Phoenix is still a well-coached and talented team, but expect them to fall short of 50 wins and not make it to the second round. 

Teddy: The Chicago Bulls surprised everyone last season, staying at the top of the Eastern Conference standings for months behind career numbers from free-agent acquisition DeMar DeRozan (28 points per game (ppg), five assists per game (apg)) and another solid year from Zach LaVine (24.5 ppg, 4.5 apg). But the injuries started to pile up. LaVine went out for a bit, then important role player Alex Caruso broke his wrist, and then point guard Lonzo Ball had knee issues. Chicago tumbled down the East standings, finishing sixth before bowing out quickly to the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs. The Bulls made little moves this offseason, their only notable additions being veterans Goran Dragić and Andre Drummond. Chicago enters this season with virtually the same roster and injury concerns, as Ball is still out for an indefinite period of time because of his knee. This is a key reason why the Bulls could struggle, at least at first; Ball was a huge reason for their slide last year, a strong defender and shooter whose facilitating play style perfectly complemented DeRozan and LaVine’s heavy scoring. It’s also reasonable to expect a slight regression from Demar, who turned 33 this year and has high expectations after arguably the greatest season of his career. The Bulls may start slow, and in a highly competitive Eastern Conference, it’ll be difficult to catch up. 

Who will be the 2022–23 NBA Champion?

Sam: With the San Antonio Spurs as the exception, every NBA champion over the past 15 years has had one thing in common: they were led by a top five player. I don’t see why this trend wouldn’t continue this year, and, provided they can stay healthy, the Denver Nuggets could be crowned champions come June. Led by back-to-back MVP Jokić, the Nuggets have eclipsed 45 wins each of the past five years. Standing at seven feet tall, Jokić’s undisputedly the best passing big ever and arguably the most talented center ever. The Nuggets front office is paying their big three of Jokić, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. 95 million a year. Unfortunately for Denver, Murray, who averaged 27 points per game in the 2020 playoffs, has not seen the floor in a season and a half due to an ACL tear. Hoping to build on a successful 2020–2021 campaign where he averaged 19 points per game on 45% from behind the arc, Porter Jr.’s season was abruptly cut short after just nine games. With Murray and Porter Jr. returning to help Jokić, the Nuggets will boast the most offensively talented trio in the league. Despite all three players’ defense being a concern, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Aaron Gordon, both exceptional defenders, should eliminate any weaknesses Denver may have. If they can stay healthy, which is a big if, the Nuggets have the firepower to win it all.

Teddy: If you couldn’t tell by the MVP question, I’m a big Antetokounmpo supremacist. As Sam expertly pointed out, every recent NBA champion has been led by a top five player. Having a superstar matters, and Antetokounmpo is the best player and biggest superstar in the league. An incredible defensive force on and off the ball and the most physically imposing player since Shaq, we’ve never seen anything like him. Think about this: Antetokounmpo took the Bucks to seven games against the Boston Celtics last playoffs without Khris Middleton, Milwaukee’s second-best player. He pushed a team that was bound for the finals to the brink of elimination with his team far from full strength. This year, the Bucks are fully loaded, and while they made limited offseason moves the trio of Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Jrue Holiday still stands strong. Around this core, Milwaukee has its usual assortment of quality role players like Pat Connaughton, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Wesley Matthews. But perhaps most importantly, the Bucks have been there before. This same group has already won an NBA championship and had deep playoff runs together, and as we saw with last year’s Warriors squad, experience matters in the playoffs. In short, Milwaukee has the superstar, the co-stars, the supporting cast, and the history to bring home the Larry O’Brien trophy for the second time in three years—this will undoubtedly start the Antetokounmpo GOAT conversation, which in turn will inspire intense hatred from both Jordan and LeBron fans. 

Those are our predictions! Keep in mind that most of them, if not all of them, will probably be wrong. But it’s fun to speculate! What makes the NBA so special is how unpredictable it is. For all we know, the Sacramento Kings could make the playoffs this season…well, maybe they’re not that unpredictable. But what’s certain is this year will be electric and we can’t wait to check back in with you guys as the season progresses!

Teddy Benchley can be reached at tbenchley@wesleyan.edu.

Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu.