With four games left and the playoffs rapidly approaching, the National Basketball Association (NBA) season is coming to a close. Now, the final push for individual season accolades ends as teams look to pivot into playoff form. Before that all goes down, however, I am here to give my final thoughts on the award races and playoff hopes.

Most Valuable Player (MVP) Race

The race for MVP has boiled down to three contenders: Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokić, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The big man Embiid has led the Philadelphia 76ers to third in the Eastern Conference, tied with Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks at 48–30. He has put up 30.2 points per game, just 0.1 points less than 37-year-old GOAT LeBron James, who thus far leads the NBA in scoring. For his part, James still needs to compete in two of the four remaining games in order to reach the 58-game threshold necessary to be considered for the title of MVP. LeBron is currently sitting out due to an ankle injury, so it is very possible that Embiid will snag this accolade. On top of Embiid’s prolific scoring, he averages 11.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game. These stats have not been recorded by a center in over 40 years, even by the Big Diesel, Shaquille O’Neal.

If Embiid is putting up stats that another center hasn’t produced in most of our lifetimes, some of you might ask why he isn’t the obvious frontrunner for MVP. Well, it just so happens that a center in the Western Conference has been breaking the mold and redefining the position. Jokić has led the Denver Nuggets into fifth place so far in his respective conference, putting up 26.8 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game on a historic 38.5 player efficiency rating (PER), a whole three points over second (Antetokounmpo) and five points over third (Embiid) in that category. While Jokić isn’t nearly the scorer that Embiid or Antetokounmpo are, his passing ability is unmatched and is greater than any other center in the history of the NBA. Jokić’s assist stat is so good that it makes Embiid’s 4.2 assists per game (which puts him in second or third for most assists by a center this year, depending on if you consider Domantas Sabonis a true center) look average.

The final MVP candidate is Antetokounmpo, affectionately nicknamed the “Greek Freak,” who led the mid-market Bucks to their second-ever NBA title last year. Antetokounmpo averages 30.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.4 blocks per game and has moved his way into the race with unbelievable late-season play, holding the Bucks in third within the highly competitive Eastern Conference.

Each player I have written about has played phenomenally, making this one of the toughest years to choose an MVP in recent memory. However, for me, seeing Embiid win an MVP would be the most special. In the last three years, Antetokounmpo has won back-to-back MVPs and Jokić has won the most recent, while Embiid has been left hanging by the wayside (he has been runner up or top three in multiple MVP races). While I am biased as a lifelong Philly fan, what Embiid has brought to the 76ers’ franchise is incredible. From being the third-worst team in basketball history in their 2016 season, where they went 10–72, to drafting Embiid and becoming a dominant force in the East that has its eyes on the championship and can attract big stars like James Harden, Embiid has revived the love of the game in the City of Brotherly Love. Embiid’s scoring has not been seen from a center since Moses Malone in 1982. One could argue that Jokić’s assist numbers are just as historic, but I would counter that at the end of the day, scoring is the goal of basketball and should be given greater weight when judging an MVP.

In terms of Antetokounmpo vs. Embiid, I would point out that their stats are practically identical, and they hold the same record in the same conference. That being said, I think the current NBA is universally considered to be the age of the small-forward/shooting-guard (although there could be an argument that there is currently a shift towards an age of point-guards), and thus a center putting up the same numbers as a small-forward is especially impressive. For reference, the greatest scorers of our generation, excluding those in this year’s MVP race, have been Harden, James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Stephen Curry, and Russell Westbrook. While this list is not exhaustive, none of these players are centers, or even power-forwards (and before anyone gets mad that I have not included players like Dirk Nowitzki or Tim Duncan, this is a list of our generation’s greatest scorers, not the greatest players). Also, if we were comparing centers to other positions on equal footing, Jokic’s 8.0 assists per game suddenly become a non-factor, since he is 8th in assists this year.

I could go on and on about the MVP race, but I am remembering that there is a word limit to this article, so I will move on to the rest of the season awards and playoff matchups.

Rookie of the Year (ROY) Race

Looking at the Rookie of the Year award, the battle should come down to Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons. Mobley had the race clamped down until he injured his ankle just a few games ago and has yet to return. In the meantime, Cunningham has produced an outstanding second half to his season, leading all rookies in scoring and measuring well against other top rookies in all other important statistical categories. The final decision will come down to personal preference: either the player who puts up consistency on all fronts (Mobley) or the flashy player who could easily come to lead the NBA in scoring after a few years of development (Cunningham). Personally, I would lean towards Mobley because I do not think this injury should be the deciding factor in his ROY hopes, especially after being an integral part of Cleveland’s outstanding regular season standing of seventh, outperforming every expectation, and adding 20+ wins to the team’s record from last year. By comparison, the Pistons have remained an abysmal team and sit at 14th place in the Eastern Conference, just one place up from last year. If a regular-season record is considered for the MVP race, why should it not be considered for the ROY award?

Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) Race

Antetokounmpo leads the defensive race, and if the voters have any sense, he will take home the trophy over Rudy Gobert, who, in my opinion, is one of the most overrated players in the NBA. I think Shaq said it best when Gobert got his pay-day last year: “I’m not gonna hate, but this should be an inspiration to all the little kids out there. You can average 11 points in the NBA, you can get $200 million. The silver lining is he is a great agent, and I’m happy for him and his family.” Shaq followed that comment up with a post on Instagram of a photoshopped image of him dunking on Gobert, captioned, “I would [have] 45 pts 16 rebound ten missed free throws in three quarters. He woulda had 11 pts four rebounds and fouled out in 3 quarters.” Shaq has never said something truer than this.

Gobert plays decently well against a center position that has struggled to be comfortable in the modern NBA, and his complete lack of offensive ability means he is at an advantage on the defensive end, since he can spend all his energy and focus on that part of the floor. On the other hand, Antetokounmpo must face off against the most offensively versatile players in the NBA on a nightly basis, and on top of that, he actually can contribute on the offensive side of the floor, so he is expending energy on both sides of the court and still outperforming the Frenchman.

With the conclusion of the individual accolades, I am purposely not including the Most Improved Player and Sixth Man because if the winner is not on your team, who honestly cares? We can move on to team performances.

Playoff Preview

In the East, four teams lead the conference, and in my opinion, they are equally dangerous: the Miami Heat, the Boston Celtics, the Milwaukee Bucks, and the Philadelphia 76ers. None of them are seasonal flukes. Separated by just 2.5 games, facing any one of these teams will prove a grueling matchup. The next two teams in the standings are the Chicago Bulls and the Toronto Raptors; both teams are good, but not special. The Bulls could definitely prove to be a difficult match-up, but their lack of experience, size, and star power, outside of DeMar DeRozan, could prove too much to overcome. They have also had a mediocre end of the season, making any case for a deep playoff run hard to swallow.

In the play-in rounds, the most interesting case will be the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets house a super team; however, with injuries, COVID-19 restrictions (Kyrie Irving, *cough cough*), and strange circumstances, they have been relegated to the play-in round and will be an unknown headed into the playoffs. They will need to win one or even two games in a row to move on to the actual playoffs. Assuming they do move on, though, they will be a disheartening first-round matchup to any high-seeded East team and could easily be a favorite as a lower seed. With Irving, Durant, Curry, Blake Griffin, and a possibly returning Ben Simmons (who has been missing from the NBA ever since he refused to return to Philly this season), they are the biggest offensive threat in the NBA. Other teams in the play-in tournament include Cleveland, Charlotte, and Atlanta, none of which will make a splash unless Trae Young can recreate last year’s playoff drama. The teams who missed the playoffs will remain unnamed and can be found by an easy Google search.

In the West, the Phoenix Suns have run away with the first seed and will look to redeem their NBA Finals collapse against the Bucks last year. Behind them, the Memphis Grizzlies have stepped up and separated themselves from the rest of the conference. Led by a wildly athletic Ja Morant, I can see them go on a little playoff run, especially if they face an easy path to the Western Conference Finals. However, I think it is unlikely they will take home the title due to lack of experience and an inability to beat a weathered team in a seven-game series. They probably would have had a better chance of winning if it was more a March Madness format: the Grizzlies are a team that can shock an opponent in high-pressure situations; they lack experience and are gunning for the top teams with a youthful frenzy, which is a perfect combo to win in a one-and-done playoff format. For me, they are this year’s Atlanta Hawks, but slightly better. So if you want to see some exciting games, be sure to tune in.

The rest of the West is sadly mediocre. There are fine regular season teams, but not competitors for the Championship, including the Golden State Warriors, the Dallas Mavericks, the Denver Nuggets, and the Utah Jazz. Obviously, it would be amazing to watch Curry and Klay Thompson wind back the clock and show us a prime set of the Splash Brothers, but as the season progresses, this fan hope becomes increasingly unlikely and will probably have to wait until next season. Notably out of the playoffs are the Los Angeles Lakers. Anyone over the age of 30 looking at this team might take one glance at the roster and think they are the greatest team of all time, but, sadly, age does play a factor in professional performance. The team is made up of too many older players who cannot keep up with the younger classes, and the young guys the Lakers do have are just not very good. That being said, it will be sad not to watch LeBron in the playoffs, especially after putting up 30.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game. But it’s not over till it’s over, so hopefully, the Lakers can pull out a miracle and sneak their way into the play-in round. But even if that happens, their chances to do anything in the playoffs are nil.

With only four more games left, the NBA has concluded another successful season. There are several teams that could have a shot to win it all, and the drama is in all the right places. Unlike many other leagues, the NBA continues to produce entertainment and joy from the players, the way sports should.

 

Eli Seaver can be reached at eseaver@wesleyan.edu.