We are halfway through the NFL season and we’re here for our fourth check-in of the season. Instead of our typical analysis where we dive into fleeting trends or week-by-week updates, we’re zooming out. We are going to discuss the top storylines this year as part of the broader story of the NFL, examining dynasties, roster constructions, last dances, and more.
The Kansas City Patriots?
I’m old enough to remember when Patrick Mahomes was the hot new commodity, throwing 60-yard bombs every game; he was an antithesis to Tom Brady, the check-down artist. Five years later, Mahomes is everything Brady was hated for, and the Chiefs mirror the second version of the dynasty Patriots.
Brady and Mahomes are the two best to ever line up under center. Their play styles contrasted when they matched up early in Mahomes’ career; Mahomes torched the league with deep balls while Brady dinked and dunked. But over the past few seasons, the deep shots to Tyreek Hill have been replaced by check-downs to Justin Watson. In fact, Mahomes is 43rd out of 44 QBs in average depth of target this season. This shift is partly due to Hill’s departure and the rise of two high safeties, which has limited downfield opportunities. However, it’s reasonable to think that Mahomes, after winning three out of four regular-season matchups against Brady but losing twice in the playoffs, has come to see Brady’s style—taking what the defense gives—as a better blueprint for postseason success.
Mahomes has even adopted the strategy of working the “new guy” into the offense, even though spamming middle-of-the-field passes to Travis Kelce is more efficient game by game. Speaking of Kelce—does “the past-his-prime tight end who goes on cruise control during the regular season to save it up for the playoffs” ring a bell? What about a Hall of Fame coach who employs great coordinators who haven’t succeeded on their own? An offense that is run-heavy despite having a Hall of Fame quarterback? The biggest similarity, however, is the roster construction. Both front offices invested heavily in a sturdy offensive line, but the money they committed to their quarterback and line forced sacrifices elsewhere. The Patriots’ front office was content in drafting linebackers and corners, getting the most out of their rookie contract, and then replacing them with another rookie or an older, former Patriot who fell out of favor with their new teams. Reid’s offensive expertise allows the Chiefs to do the same but with wide receivers and running backs.
For how successful the Patriots were, Mahomes and the Chiefs are on a trajectory that could surpass them. Considering he still has nearly 10 years left in his prime and the Chiefs will be perennial contenders with number 15 at the helm, five Super Bowls seems conservative and six strikes me as the most likely. Honestly, who would bet against Mahomes reaching six rings? Not me.
Disaster in Dallas—A Reckoning for Jerry
The Dallas Cowboys have usually been a strong regular season team in the Dak Prescott era—12 wins in three straight years—and the only questions have been about their playoff potential (Prescott is 2–5 in the postseason for his career). But everything has gone up in flames this season. The Cowboys currently sit at 3–5, third place in the surprisingly competitive NFC East, and pretty far out of a brutal NFC wild-card race. It feels like the usual drama with this team has been turned up to the max this year, but I’ll do a quick run-through.
First, there was the Prescott saga, as owner Jerry Jones preached patience over the summer in regards to his contract negotiations before signing him to a $240 million deal the day before the NFL season. There’s also the looming topic of head coach Mike McCarthy, whose contract is up after this year and who has been criticized by past Cowboys legends for his offensive play-calling and playoff failures. There’s a clear tension throughout the front office, players, and coaching staff, and a recent ESPN article detailing how Jones creates in-depth tours of the team facility for fans (much to the chagrin of players and coaches) only sparked the flames. And this was all before Prescott suffered a hamstring injury last Sunday that will keep him out for at least four weeks. At around the halfway point of the NFL season, the year looks lost for Dallas.
While much has gone wrong with the Cowboys, the most blame for the failures of this team has to fall squarely on the shoulders of Jerry Jones. As general manager, Jones has given Prescott very little to work with. Dallas has no reliable second receiver next to CeeDee Lamb, their backfield duo of Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott is one of the worst in the league, and their offensive line—once a clear strength—is diminished. The defense is also not what it was; standouts Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence have battled injuries, and the unit as a whole is suffering from the loss of coordinator Dan Quinn.
But the issues with Dallas are deeper, and it gets to the fundamental issue of that ESPN article: for the last 30 years, Jerry Jones has prioritized entertainment value over Super Bowls. The Cowboys were once the envy of the league, with three championships in the 1990s and legends like Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, and Emmitt Smith wearing the star on their helmet. They’re still an iconic franchise with one of the largest fan bases in the NFL, but their important players and coaches of the last decades—whether that be McCarthy, former coach Jason Garrett, Prescott, or former quarterback Tony Romo—have all been good, yet not quite good enough. The problem is Jerry seems okay with this. As long as the team makes enough revenue and continues to dominate media headlines, he’s happy. If there’s anything this season has revealed for the Cowboys, it’s that their Super Bowl drought will continue as long as Jerry is owning the team and running football operations.
Disappointment in San Francisco: The End of an Era?
Coming into the season, the San Francisco 49ers seemed destined to compete for the Super Bowl again; they returned almost their entire roster from last year’s deep playoff run, with everyone hungry to avenge a crushing championship loss to the Chiefs. But as is inherent on a team with this much talent, there was the lingering question of who would get the money. Star wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk’s future was up in the air throughout the summer, and when he finally inked a contract extension before Week 1, the focus immediately shifted to quarterback Brock Purdy. Purdy is extension-eligible in 2025, and given the premium on quarterbacks in the NFL, there’s a good chance he’s going to get some big money. But an extension for Purdy means other players will inevitably get squeezed, and thus many projected this year to be San Francisco’s last shot at the Super Bowl with this ultra-talented core.
The pressure is currently at an all-time high as we enter week 10. Almost everything has gone wrong for the Niners this year: They’ve had last-second, close losses in games that they’ve controlled (Cardinals and Rams), they’ve been devastated by injuries (Christian McCaffrey and Aiyuk), and there’s even been a strange political incident with Nick Bosa. That being said, the 49ers are 4–4 on the year and only a half-game back of the NFC West lead, which seems like a minor victory given how weird the vibes have been this year. There’s certainly reason for optimism—McCaffrey should be back this week, the division is very attainable, and the Niners have a history of finishing the regular season strong—but the intense pressure on Purdy, head coach Kyle Shanahan, and the rest of the squad remains. Regardless of the hardships they’ve faced this season, a Super Bowl victory has to be the result.
As this is most likely the last season of this insane 49ers core, it’s worth reflecting on how this Shanahan era will be remembered. If San Francisco doesn’t take home the Lombardi this year, they’ll be remembered for being tantalizingly close to putting it all together but ultimately losing the moments in the biggest games. The Niners largely outplayed Kansas City in both of their Super Bowl losses; the Chiefs just won the clutch spots. You can look to 2020—Jimmy Garoppolo barely missing Emmanuel Sanders on a game-winning deep ball, or before that Patrick Mahomes connecting with Tyreek Hill on a massive third-and-long to keep the game alive. Then 2024—Mahomes converting on a massive fourth down in overtime, or Brock Purdy failing to beat the blitz on a key third down late in the game. These are plays that make San Francisco champions if they go the other way, but Kansas City won the moment every single time.
But there’s also the possibility for another discussion here, one that involves Shanahan, his system, and the type of quarterback it requires. Shanahan is one of the best offensive coaches of all time, with plays that make the quarterback’s job relatively simple and receivers who are talented enough to be open the majority of the time. But I think there’s another side to this coin—because the system is so perfect, a lot of quarterbacks can succeed in it, making it hard to determine an offense’s exact ceiling and if they need a better quarterback. This is what’s so devastating for the 49ers, Purdy played well enough for them to win the Super Bowl last year, and if literally one play had gone the other way, the Lombardi trophy would be in San Francisco. But can Purdy take them to a Super Bowl when the system isn’t perfect? That’s the thing with Shanahan’s offensive genius—it can sometimes make it hard to get a read on if a quarterback is legitimately good, a truth we often find out in the biggest moments in the biggest games. Unfortunately for San Francisco, those moments just haven’t gone their way, and it’s worth wondering about a different result if there was an upgrade under center.
Cleveland Crumbling
It’s been two and a half years since the Cleveland Browns made the most controversial trade in NFL history: acquiring Deshaun Watson. At the time, Watson was facing 22 civil lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct and assault. The accusations were serious and well-documented, but Cleveland still pulled the trigger, trading three first-round, a third-round, and two fourth-round picks for Watson. They also signed him to a fully guaranteed $230 million contract—the most expensive deal in NFL history at that time.
The NFL has an awful track record of handling abuse cases. In 2014, Ray Rice was initially suspended for only two games after knocking out his girlfriend. More recently, Tyreek Hill wasn’t suspended after breaking his son’s arm and threatening his partner. Typically, players accused of abuse receive suspensions of six games or less, and those who are suspended indefinitely are reinstated soon after. Roger Goodell and the owners have made it clear that nothing else matters if you’re good on the field. A 2022 study revealed that a player’s on-the-field worth is a better predictor of career length than whether he is accused of abuse. Watson’s record-breaking contract despite 22 cases is and will be the poster for the NFL’s continued mishandling of abuse. Unfortunately, nothing will likely change; if you’re great, you’re safe.
Even setting aside the allegations, this might be the worst trade in NFL history. Watson only played 12 games in his first two years in Cleveland and looked awful. His processing was nonexistent, the accuracy was spotty, and while he still magically escaped pockets, he couldn’t then make plays like he used to. It was clear he was nothing close to his former self, but Cleveland trotted him back out this season, succumbing to the sunk cost fallacy. The Browns started this season 1–6, and Watson wasn’t just bad, he was historically terrible. Out of the 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Watson has the worst total expected points added (EPA) and quarterback rating (QBR). In Week 8, he tore his ACL, ending his season. The following week Jameis Winston took over and led the Browns to an upset over the Ravens.
The future of Watson in Cleveland is now uncertain, but it’s apparent the trade was a failure and has left the Browns in a challenging position. They don’t have much salary cap flexibility and lost two entire drafts worth of talent from the trade. If the Browns had kept Baker Mayfield and used the money and draft picks to add talent, this team could have seriously contended. Instead, they have no playoff wins and are in a purgatory with no clear path forward. Will they end things with Watson? Perhaps. But it’s clear it will be because of Watson’s performance and not because of any moral realizations.
Thank you guys for reading! As always, we’ll leave you with four takes for the next few weeks of NFL action:
Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu.
Teddy Benchley can be reached at tbenchley@wesleyan.edu.