If you expected the NFL season to be predictable, you are clearly new to the sport. However, we will argue this has been one of the most normal starts to a season in recent memory. Still, there have been plenty of surprises and we are here to discuss them. Sam will explain what has led to the positive success of teams and Teddy will delve into some of the biggest disappointments thus far. 

The Rebirth(s)

It’s Sam Darnold’s world and we’re all just living in it. Darnold has always had the talent, but his first six seasons were memorable for the wrong reasons—the infamous mono graphic and sideline admission that he was “seeing ghosts out there.” After spending the last two years as a backup in Carolina and San Francisco, Darnold unexpectedly found himself named the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings, a team most experts predicted would finish at the bottom of their division. Three weeks into the season, Darnold leads the league in touchdowns and the Vikings are 3–0 with statement wins over the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans. There is plenty of credit to go around—Darnold is far from the driving force in this success—but he has played a key role. I’m not going to dive into the analytical part of what has led to Darnold’s resurgence; instead, I will discuss what I believe is a broader trend among veteran quarterbacks. 

While it’s only been three games, Darnold’s success does not seem Dobbs-esque, putting him on a career trajectory similar to Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith. Like Darnold, both came into the league surrounded by high expectations, were unable to succeed in lowly offenses, and, after bouncing around, have now found success in organizations with better offensive infrastructure. When you take a look at the path of each of these guys, their late career resurgences make perfect sense.

First, being a young quarterback in the NFL is difficult enough, and it’s even harder when playing for teams like the Panthers, Jets, and Browns—franchises that have historically struggled over the past 20 years. Early struggles can take a toll on a quarterback, especially under the intense scrutiny of the media and fans who expected them to be the quarterback messiah. 

Second, when things eventually fell apart with their initial teams, these quarterbacks bounced around the league and spent valuable time learning under esteemed coaches and veteran quarterbacks. Geno Smith backed up Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Russell Wilson, while Mayfield and Darnold were coached by Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. These quarterbacks were thrust into starting roles immediately after being drafted, so there’s something to be said for the benefits of spending time learning from brilliant minds without the pressure to perform. 

The final piece of the puzzle was finding a new home. Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Minnesota were not considered contenders, but each had the infrastructure in place for a quarterback to succeed. Tampa Bay still had largely the same roster that competed for a Super Bowl with Tom Brady. The same can be said, albeit to a lesser extent, for Seattle with Russell Wilson and the Vikings with Kirk Cousins. Baker, Geno, and Sam all had talent to start with, but they’ve also overcome adversity and gained knowledge. Now equipped with talented support and freed from the pressure of high expectations, their success is not as surprising as it may seem. 

Go, Go, Buffalo

The Buffalo Bills emerged this offseason as a popular surprise pick to miss the playoffs. It’s easy to see why many people were skeptical about Buffalo’s success. With the departure of All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs, the Bills’ wide receiving room was headlined by Khalil Shakir, a capable player, but a name that on the top of the depth chart does not inspire optimism. The Bills also moved on from the secondary trio that anchored their defense for so long, releasing Tre White and Jordan Poyer and losing Micah Hyde to retirement. The age-old adage in the NFL is if you didn’t get better, you got worse, and it seemed Buffalo fit this. However, coming off a 47–10 rout of the Jaguars on Monday Night Football, they have been the best team in the NFL throughout this young season.

Josh Allen’s ability to carry an offense was undervalued by fans and experts. Allen took his biggest step forward when the Bills added Diggs in 2021. But by the end of his tenure in Buffalo, Diggs was far from the All-Pro receiver he once was. In a sense, Diggs’ presence was hindering Allen, who felt the need to feed Diggs even if it was unproductive for the offense.

“It’s a fun and wonderful thing when you got a bunch of guys that don’t care about the stats, they don’t care about the touchdowns,” Allen noted after Monday’s game.

Allen’s total Quarterback Rating (QBR) currently sits at 92.6, which is the best of any quarterback through three games since the statistic was first tracked in 2006. He has been the second-best quarterback in the league for a couple of years, but the guy that we have seen through the first three games is showing unprecedented control and production.

Although Allen’s prowess could carry seemingly any roster to seven wins, others’ play has been crucial to the Bills’ domination. Shakir has been one of the most productive receivers, reeling in his last 27 targets, which ties the NFL record for most consecutive targets caught. James Cook has also taken a huge step forward, improving from the 30th-graded running back via PFF last year to 6th so far this season. 

Defensively, Gregory Rousseau built off his success from last year and currently boasts the 6th-best pass-rushing grade out of 107 edge rushers. Christian Benford has been one of the best defensive players thus far, allowing an astonishing 3.8 yards per target. The spine of Buffalo’s defense was always going to be a weak point, so the success of the Bills’ corners and edge rushers is key for the defensive success. 

It will be impossible for the Bills to keep up this scorching hot pace, as they have one of the toughest schedules remaining. Their out-of-division schedule features road games against the Ravens, Texans, and Seahawks and home bouts with the Kansas City Chiefs and 49ers. However, from what the Bills have shown, a Josh Allen injury is seemingly the only thing that could hold this team back from a playoff berth.

Cincinnati…

There are currently three 0–3 teams in the NFL—one that was somewhat predictable, one that’s moderately surprising, and one that’s very surprising. I’ll rant about the latter here because it absolutely breaks my heart. 

While my prediction for the Bengals to win the Super Bowl was pretty lofty, Cincinnati was at least a consensus wild card team this year, with star quarterback Joe Burrow returning, the same elite offensive weapons, and a solid defense. But everything has gone up in flames. First there was the 17–10 opening week loss to the woeful New England Patriots—Burrow looked lost, star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase barely made an impact after sitting out training camp for a contract dispute, and the vibes were horrible. Very bad defeat, but no big deal; the Bengals traditionally start slow under head coach Zac Taylor and figure it out throughout the season. Things looked much rosier for most of Week 2, as Cincinnati led the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs late in the fourth quarter. For a brief moment I was vindicated—the Bengals looked like an elite playoff team, one that was about to topple the kings of the AFC. Then the Chiefs got a pass interference call on fourth and long (justified, to be fair), setting up kicker Harrison Butker to nail the game-winning field goal. Just like that, Cincinnati was 0–2. But it’s only two games in a long year! 

Then came the atrocity of Monday night. Hungry and desperate, the Bengals needed to beat the Washington Commanders, an expected bottom-tier NFL team with a promising offense but heinous defense. The betting line going into this game was -7, the biggest spread of any matchup in the NFL for Week 3. In other words, Cincinnati was favored to crush Washington. 

And then Jayden Daniels happened. The Commanders’ rookie quarterback had his best game as a pro, throwing for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns in the air and rushing for 39 yards and another score on the ground. Washington dropped 38 on the Bengals’ defense, who seemed hopeless and lifeless for a team that needed to win this game. The Cincinnati offense looked potent, as Burrow threw for three touchdowns and Chase caught two of them, but the Bengals’ defensive unit buried them too deep in a hole. The Bengals are 0–3. 

I really don’t know what to say about Cincinnati. One of my biggest reasons for optimism for them was their schedule—they have a top-5 easiest slate this year—but they’ve already lost two games to teams they should’ve killed. I still believe that the Bengals can beat anybody in the AFC if they make it to the playoffs, but here’s the reality: Since 1990, 162 teams have started the season 0–3 and only four have made the postseason. That’s a 2.5% chance to make it, and none of the teams that did make it won the Super Bowl. But who am I to go back on my prediction? The Bengals have a long, long road ahead of them, and these first three weeks have been horrible, but I still believe Cincinnati can turn it around and sneak into the wild card—setting the stage for a legendary Lombardi run. 

The Other Basement Dwellers 

Now that I’ve got the emotional part out of the way, let’s discuss the unsurprising 0–3 team and the moderately surprising 0–3 team, respectively. 

The Tennessee Titans didn’t have high expectations going into the season—their consensus best case scenario was probably a 9–8 season and nothing more—but it’s still been a bit of a discouraging performance so far. The defense, expected to take a bit of a step back after the departure of culture-setting head coach Mike Vrabel, started solid but was recently lit up by Malik Willis and the Green Bay Packers. And the offense…oh boy. Will Levis has been one of the season’s early stories and for all the wrong reasons; there was the heinous interception that cost Tennessee their Week 1 game, the heinous fumble that cost Tennessee their Week 2 game, and the heinous pick-six that contributed to Tennessee’s Week 3 shelling. The decision making from Levis has been terrible, and while he’s still shown some potential with his arm strength, it’s getting to the point where his situational awareness just cannot be excused. To be fair to him, his weapons have been average—Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard have been bright spots, but that’s still not saying much—and the offensive line has been terrible at protecting their quarterback. I’m in the minority of people who still believe in Levis at this point, as I still think he has the tools to be a successful NFL quarterback, but his time in Tennessee may be running out. The bright side for Titans fans? You’ve played well enough to be 2–1, so there’s some evidence that new head coach Brian Callahan is setting a culture, and you may be in the running for the No. 1 pick in the upcoming 2025 draft. This year is probably over, but let’s look ahead!

The Jacksonville Jaguars had the upside of a serious playoff team this year, as there’s legitimate talent on this squad, but they’ve had a worse three weeks than anyone in the NFL save for Cincinnati. First there was the heartbreaking loss in Miami, as the Jaguars led late before a Travis Etienne Jr. fumble set the stage for a Dolphins comeback. Then there was Week 2, where the Jacksonville offense was tormented by the Browns’ defense before their late rally fell short. And then came the absolute shellacking delivered by the Bills on Monday Night Football, as Buffalo won 47–14 and sat their starters for most of the second half. It’s been a depressing, demoralizing season for the Jags, who’ve seen star quarterback Trevor Lawrence majorly regress and Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson struggle. Both have had their jobs called into question, and we may be seeing a new duo leading the way for Jacksonville next year if things don’t turn around fast. I’m definitely still a believer in Lawrence—he’s had a good chunk of NFL success (which people seem to be forgetting) and was also deemed a generational prospect for a reason—but the schedule does not get much easier for the Jags going forward. While I like certain pieces on this team, they may be already buried, and big changes seem to be on the horizon. 

Those are our four takeaways from the first three weeks of the NFL season! Thanks for reading, and as always, we leave you all with four predictions for the near future: 

1. The New York Jets are 5–1 by our next article
2. Same…but with the Packers
3. Caleb Williams has his best game as a pro in Week 4 
4. Jameis Winston will be the Browns QB by Week 6

Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu.

Teddy Benchley can be reached at tbenchley@wesleyan.edu.