Do debates really matter when it comes to the outcome of an election? Generally not. For every Joe Biden (“We finally beat Medicare!”), Rick Perry (“Oops”), or George H.W. Bush (“What time is it?”) moment, you have 100 milquetoast debates that made no difference in the outcome of the election. Instead, today’s presidential debates are highly orchestrated campaign stunts that feature more political mud-slinging than substantial policy discussion—a far cry from the days of the Lincoln-Douglas debates. 

Yet something is different about this year’s election. Unlike past presidential elections, which seem to last an eternity (or quite literally two and a half years, in the case of 2020 Democratic primary candidate John Delaney), this election is truncated. Vice President Kamala Harris took the reins as the Democratic nominee in mid-July, and voters continue to look for more information about Harris. In a poll by The New York Times/Siena released last week, 28% of likely voters said they feel like they need to learn more about Harris; only 9% of the same respondents said they felt the need to learn more about former President Donald Trump. This is likely due, in part, to sit-down interviews between Harris and the media being as elusive as finding Bigfoot. However, this debate promised to provide Harris the opportunity to improve her relationship with voters.

On Tuesday, Sept. 10, the two candidates took the stage at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pa. Viewers anxiously clung to their seats. Could Trump contain himself? Would Harris distance herself from Biden? Would the candidates even shake hands? Nerves had not been this high watching a Philadelphia-centric event since Craig Kimbrel attempted to close out games for the Phillies in the playoffs.

Without further ado, here are my instant reactions to the presidential debate.

Trump Has Lost His Fastball

I have never thought of Trump as a good debater. He certainly does not have the chops to spar over policy. Despite this, he always had a way to capture the moment and make for good TV. How many policy discussions from Trump’s presidential debates do you remember? Probably none. However, you likely remember Trump’s quip that the only woman he called a fat pig was Rosie O’Donnell, his nicknames like “Low Energy Jeb,” or his retort to Hillary Clinton that under his presidency, she would “be in jail.” In this era of TikTok and brain rot, one-liners are one of the most impactful parts of the debates. Yet Trump failed to deliver anything of that sort on Tuesday night. Instead, we heard a candidate ramble about his 2020 election grievances and the Robert Mueller special counsel investigation. Trump has gone from the “new kid on the block” candidate in 2016, who stood out in comparison to a litany of career politicians, to the babbling politician himself. This iteration of Trump 2024 gives off bad sequel (“The Hangover Part III”?) vibes.

Did the Campaign Fall Out of a Coconut Tree?

Remember when Harris tossed her hat in the ring for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination? Well, Harris may not. In the debate, she cemented her reversal of many of her campaign promises from five years ago. Gone are the policies of Medicare for All, decriminalizing border crossings, and banning fracking. In this debate, we instead heard Harris talk about her background as a prosecutor, a call for increased domestic oil drilling, and an endorsement of Republican Senator James Lankford’s border legislation. 

However, Harris’ attempt to represent more moderate policy perspectives will likely be the right approach if she wants to win. Her 2020 presidential campaign platform clearly did not catch on, even among Democrats: When she dropped out, she trailed Andrew Yang in the polls. Additionally, in the recently released New York Times/Siena poll, a slight plurality of voters (44%) view Harris as “too liberal or progressive.” The same poll found that 50% of voters viewed Trump as “not too far” to the left or right. In a race that could be decided by just a few thousand votes, independent and undecided voters (who polling suggests prefer ideologically moderate candidates) will likely determine the election. Harris targeted them tonight.

“That’s Bait.”

Throughout the evening, Harris planted bait, and Trump took it virtually every time. She took jabs at Trump’s rally sizes, previous bankruptcies, and his allegedly poor relationships with world leaders. Each time, Trump responded with a ramble that could only appeal to a voter who watches Infowars. We heard about a false story involving Haitian immigrants eating cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio; the 2020 election being stolen; Israel being destroyed within two years under a Harris administration; and “transgender operations on illegal aliens in prison.”

As the night went on, Trump became visibly frustrated, and his answers sounded more like they belonged at a campaign rally than a debate centered around a national audience. Trump even missed an easy layup: a question on the Biden administration’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. Instead, he spoke about negotiating with and threatening to kill “Abdul,” whom he incorrectly identified as the head of the Taliban. 

Harris’ responses to questions about inflation and immigration and her flip-flopping on certain issues left much to be desired. Yet, Trump was unable to effectively form a coherent argument—but at least he gave shoutouts to Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity, and Jesse Watters.

Candy Crowley or David Muir?

Presidential debate moderators have generally stayed out of the fray when fact-checking presidential candidates. Previous efforts to fact-check candidates have only created more debate. In 2012, moderator Candy Crowley (correctly or incorrectly, depending on whom you ask) became the story of the debate after fact-checking Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Romney alleged that President Barack Obama did not call the attack on the Benghazi consulate a terror attack for two weeks.

However, in the spirit of Crowley, ABC’s team of moderators, David Muir and Linsey Davis, brought back live fact-checking. Muir and Davis called out Trump’s lies on legalized infanticide and Haitian immigrants eating dogs. In response to the live fact-checking, Republicans have called out a perceived bias from the moderators—and they might be right. Intentional or unintentional, Trump was fact-checked five times to Harris’s zero. There were chances to call out Harris’ misleading statements, including when Harris said that Trump said there would be a “bloodbath” if he lost the election—he was referencing the auto industry. 

We Have Come a Long Way From “Mr. Gorbachev, Tear Down This Wall!”

Trump is no Ronald Reagan when it comes to Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. After being asked: “Do you want Ukraine to win this war?” Trump said, “I think it’s in the U.S.’s best interest to get this war finished and just get it done.” He refused to say “yes.”

Pennsylvania Matters

Did you know the debate was held in Philadelphia, Pa.? Home to 19 electoral votes, the winner of the Commonwealth is likely to win the election. Both candidates attempted to please the Keystone state’s voters. The word “fracking” was spoken seven times by the candidates. The word “Pennsylvania,” six times. Instead of a closing statement, I was expecting a candidate to pander with an “E-A-G-L-E-S” chant. 

What Will the Impact Be?

This is the $1 million question. Harris clearly won the debate, but how much of a role will it play in voters’ minds come Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024? Harris came off as intelligent and with an understanding of the issues. Betting markets on PredictIt.org showed a 4% increase in the perceived likelihood of Harris winning the election (57%) after the debate. I expect to see Harris get a polling boost following the debate; she is back in the driver’s seat after a week of subpar polling.

It seems like it was years ago since Trump was shot in the ear. However, give or take a handful of days, the halfway point between the shooting and Election Day was the presidential debate. How much of a difference is the Trump assassination attempt making on the election, currently? Little to none. A lot can change in eight weeks.

Trump has always been a figure who is hard to take down. With the exception of his June 2024 debate with Biden, focus groups generally showed that Trump never won a general election debate. Yet, he still won the presidency in 2016. Trump is like the shark in “Jaws.” You can push him out to sea and think he is done: the “John McCain is not a war hero” attack, the “Access Hollywood” tape, or Jan. 6. However, that shark is still out at sea. Trump may be weakened, but he is still out there. If Harris wants to defeat Trump, the debate was a good start, but the next eight weeks will decide the fate of the election. 

 

Blake Fox is a member of the class of 2026 and can be reached at bfox@wesleyan.edu.