c/o Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Super Bowl Sunday is less than a week away, with the Kansas City Chiefs set to face off against the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl. On one side, this clash is exactly what many anticipated at the start of the season. The Chiefs, reigning champions, and the 49ers, who were one win away from the Super Bowl last year, are now set to face each other. However, their journeys have added a layer of intrigue to this upcoming showdown. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs had a surprisingly slow start before regaining their championship form in the postseason, while the 49ers showcased their resilience in clutch moments during January. Without further ado, here are our Super Bowl predictions!

Sam: Why the Chiefs Will Win

It’s been a weird season for Kansas City, who opened as the Super Bowl favorites, started 6–1, then lost five of their next eight games and stumbled into the playoffs with more question marks than certainties. The Chiefs then dominated the Dolphins at home in the Wild Card round, then went into Buffalo and Baltimore and sucked the life out of both cities. Kansas City heads into their matchup with San Francisco with their best defense in the Mahomes era and a chance to win their third ring in five seasons. 

While picking Kansas City means trusting the Chiefs, it equally means lacking confidence in the Niners. San Francisco’s offense was a well-oiled machine in the regular season, and although they have scored 24 and 34 points in their first two playoff games, their offense has been a shell of what it was in the regular season. Brock Purdy has looked like a backup quarterback, and the playoff averages of Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel are all lower than their regular season stats. The 49ers have beaten Green Bay and Detroit by only a combined six points (despite being over a touchdown favorite in both games), and both teams had opportunities to put the 49ers away, but the 49ers are still alive due to both luck and the failure of Green Bay and Detroit to execute simple plays. What makes this even more concerning for the 49ers is that Green Bay and Detroit have two of the league’s worst defenses. The Packers allowed 28 points to the Panthers (who scored zero points in their last two games), and the Lions finished the regular season playing Minnesota twice, where they allowed Nick Mullens to throw for a combined 800 yards. In short, San Francisco has faced poor defenses, whereas Kansas City’s defense, which has allowed 6 and 10 points to Miami and Baltimore respectively, is exemplary.

The Chiefs have talent on all three levels: Chris Jones has been one of the best interior linemen in the league for a few years now, Nick Bolton leads the playoff in tackles, and L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie have been the best cornerback duo this year. Arguably the biggest strength of the Chiefs defense, however, is defensive coordinator Steve “Spags” Spagnuolo. Spags is in his fifth season as the Chiefs’ DC and made his mark as one of the best defensive playcallers by dialing up diabolical blitzes that put even the best quarterbacks in peril. Spagnuolo is clutch, which might sound like a weird description for a coach, but even if his defense has a rough first three quarters (see game against Bills), the defense constantly steps up on key fourth quarter 3rd downs. If the Niners’ offense looks anything like it has so far this postseason, Kansas City’s offense won’t even need to do much to win.

Football’s intricate nature demands synchronized efforts from all 53 players and the coaching staff. Unlike basketball, hockey, or soccer, where a single player can compensate for team shortcomings, football relies heavily on coordination. Yet, if there’s a player—present or historical—whose individual impact rivals the collective, it’s undeniably Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs’ offense was underwhelming throughout the regular season, but they have found their stride in the postseason. San Francisco’s defense has also been below average in the second half of this season and in the playoffs: they are 21st in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) from week seven onwards and were torched on the ground by Green Bay and Detroit. This side of the ball is the toughest to predict because both units have looked spectacular at moments and been liabilities at others. However, if this game is close in the fourth quarter, regardless of the circumstances, I trust Patrick Mahomes to win the game.

Teddy: Why the 49ers Will Win

The Niners have had an absolute roller coaster of a playoff run so far: two games, two significant deficits, and two comeback victories. When evaluating this team, there are (fittingly) two approaches: glass-half-full and glass-half-empty. There are significant reasons to be glass-half-empty on this team, as Sam has laid out. But I’m a glass-half-full person, and we’re taking that approach here!

San Francisco is due for one of the classic games of absolute dominance that we saw in the regular season against the Cowboys and Eagles. They’ve probably played one good half of playoff football, and that was the second half of the Detroit game. That’s crazy, but on the bright side, that was their most recent half of football—momentum may carry them to a strong start in the Super Bowl. And the Niners need a strong start. They’re at their best when they’re ahead and quarterback Brock Purdy is playing with momentum, which allows Kyle Shanahan to open up the playbook and show his creativity. There’s certainly a path here for the Niners’ offense to shine. While Purdy is a clear downgrade from Lamar Jackson, the Kansas City defense hasn’t had to contain anywhere near the number of playmakers the Niners offer, with the superstar quartet of Christian McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle. All it takes is a few devastating McCaffrey runs for San Francisco to start pulling out the play-action and let Purdy drop back with plenty of time to get the ball to his guys. If the Niners can score first, get Purdy’s confidence going, and allow Shanahan to get creative, the Kansas City defense is in trouble.

The other side of the ball for San Francisco is probably the team’s biggest weakness of late. While they’re flush with talent on paper (Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward, and Chase Young), both the Packers and the Lions moved the ball pretty easily against them for the majority of both games. This is far from the vaunted Niners defense of the past or even earlier in the season—they’ve been disjointed, as the front line’s inability to get pressure (they have two sacks all postseason, both from Bosa) has given quarterbacks more time to expose the vulnerable San Francisco secondary. They’ve also gotten destroyed on the ground, as Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, and Jahmyr Gibbs all had significant games despite their team’s loss.

But let’s think glass-half-full! I believe the success of the Niners defense depends directly on the success of their offense; if Purdy & Co. can get the team out to a significant lead, it could put pressure on Kansas City to look for explosive pass plays and abandon their run game, which is a significant part of their attack (and like I previously mentioned, a massive weakness for the Niners). If defensive coordinator Steve Wilks can force Patrick Mahomes to continually drop back and look downfield, it could give the Niners’ talented pass rush some more time to get pressure and exploit a somewhat beat-up Kansas City offensive line. This isn’t the same Chiefs that San Francisco played in 2020; they’re more experienced and significantly better defensively, but they also have nowhere near the offensive explosion (aka Tyreek Hill) that used to keep them in games even when they were down early. If the Niners can stomp on them early on both sides of the ball, Kansas City might not have the personnel to get back up. 

Conclusion

So, there are our cases for both teams! Regardless of who wins, it’s sure to be an incredible game with loads of talent, and just think of the narratives. If the Chiefs win, Mahomes gets to dip his toe into the GOAT conversation with three Super Bowls and two MVPs at the ripe age of 28. Ridiculous. If the Niners win, Kyle Shanahan finally conquers his demons, Brock Purdy completes a remarkable underdog story, and the entire San Francisco organization is rewarded after being incredibly close for so many years. We’ll see legacies on the line this Sunday, Feb. 11, and it’ll be entertaining no matter what happens. Of course, this wouldn’t be a Sam and Teddy column without some game predictions: 

1. Isiah Pacheco runs for over 100 yards and a touchdown. 
2. The first score of the game is a field goal from Harrison Butker. 
3. Purdy throws a costly interception (and has another one dropped because I have never seen someone get as lucky as him). 
4. Chris Jones records two sacks.

Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu.

Teddy Benchley can be reached at tbenchley@wesleyan.edu.