c/o Steph Chambers

The College Football Playoff was implemented in 2014, and for the first time in its 10-year existence, all 5 conference championship games matter. There are a plethora of scenarios, some that leave a clear cut four and others that present the College Football Playoff Committee with an impossible mess to sort out. In playing different scenarios out, there is one set of outcomes that provides the committee with difficult decisions.

In this chaos scenario, I am going to say Alabama beats Georgia in a tightly contested game. Oregon beats Washington comfortably, but does not blow them out. Florida State squeaks by Louisville in an ugly game. In the PAC-12, Texas takes care of Oklahoma State easily, winning by 20 plus points. Michigan takes care of business with Iowa to cap off Saturday night. All of these results, aside from Alabama beating Georgia, would be expected, so there is a decent chance we are left with this scenario by Sunday morning.

MICHIGAN: The above sequence of events leaves us with Michigan as the undefeated Big Ten champion with two top ten wins. They would grab the #1 spot and be the only lock. 

OHIO STATE: Ohio State enters this weekend with an outside shot of making the playoffs, but this would require two of the other three teams — Texas, Alabama, and Florida State — to lose, which would not happen in this scenario. 

This leaves us with three spots for Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Florida State, Washington, and Texas. 

WASHINGTON: Washington would have one loss, but since they are currently only two spots ahead of Oregon, a loss this weekend ensures they would be jumped by the Ducks and effectively eliminated. 

ALABAMA: Alabama would almost certainly be a lock. They would have the best win in the country (the first team to beat Georgia since they did so on Dec. 4, 2021) and the best loss (against a really good Texas team early in the season). They would be the champions of the best conference in the country and, along with Georgia, hold wins against Louisiana State University (LSU) and Ole Miss. The Crimson Tide would likely file in at the two spot. 

So, we have narrowed it down to two spots for Georgia, Texas, Florida State, and Oregon. 

FLORIDA STATE: Like Michigan, Florida State’s destiny is not tied to any of the other teams. However, unlike the Wolverines, the Seminoles are eliminated with a loss. For Florida State, nothing matters except Louisville. There are a lot of people out there who will argue that even if the Seminoles squeak by Louisville, they are not guaranteed to be in. The argument people will use are injuries and the eye test, and there is some validity to this point of view. Florida State was already suspect before losing Jordan Travis, their star quarterback, for the year. The Seminoles played close games against the likes of Boston College and Miami, and some of their better wins (Clemson and Duke) are not as impressive as they were at the time. Travis was as important to the Seminoles team as any player in the country. Florida State’s offense looks entirely different without him, and the committee admits that this is a factor. With all of that being said, the Seminoles would be a 13–0 Power Five Conference Champion with 3 top-25 wins (no other team would have more). Leaving Florida State out would deviate from everything the committee has stood for in the past. 

But still, there is an argument for the Seminoles not to be in. It is the committee’s job to find the four best teams. They have said that injuries are taken into serious consideration, and Oregon being ahead of Ohio State, Texas, and Alabama despite objectively worse resumes shows the committee places significant emphasis on the eye test. Let’s look at it this way: Even if Florida State wins and Georgia loses, if those two teams played on a neutral site, the Bulldogs would be laying close to two touchdowns. Even if the Seminoles blow out the Cardinals this weekend, there will still be a unanimous consensus among fans that they are not one of the best four teams. Still, you cannot only take the eye test into account. Knowing what we know the committee values, Florida State will likely be in, but it is not a certainty.  

GEORGIA: The Bulldogs have clearly been the best team in the country this season. And whether people want to admit it or not, Georgia being back-to-back national champions does earn them some points. It’s crazy to think that Georgia likely needs to win to get in despite winning 41 of their last 42 games, but the reality is that not being a conference champion is a huge stain on their resume. What’s even crazier is that, despite a loss (it couldn’t be a blowout), Georgia would still be favored on a neutral site against every other team in the country. Yet, in this scenario they would probably be on the outside looking in.

TEXAS: Now, let’s talk about Texas. They are the most interesting team in this scenario. The Longhorns are hurt by the fact that Brigham Young University (BYU) decided to play like a high school team in the second half this past weekend. If BYU had played semi-competent football, Texas would be facing Oklahoma instead, a win against whom would be much more impressive to the committee than a win against Oklahoma State. But, alas, the past is the past and Texas plays the Cowboys this week. If the Longhorns want to sneak in, they need to win with style. They don’t necessarily need to blow the Cowboys out, but they can’t play a sluggish game that they pull out with a last-second field goal. The crux of the Longhorns argument would be that they are the Big 12 Champion and have the highest ranked win (Alabama). “You’re putting Alabama in? Well, we beat them, why shouldn’t we be in?” Longhorn fans will say. While this is a good argument, this win did come in week two, against an Alabama offense which was a shell of their current selves. Further, although head-to-head is important, as we’ve established, there is no one factor that the committee prizes over the others. 

OREGON: The Ducks filed in at the fifth spot in the past rankings. I personally disagree with this ranking, considering Alabama, Texas, and Ohio State all have better Strength of Schedule, Strength of Resume, and more Quad I wins. But it doesn’t matter what I think, and the committee thinks Oregon is a top-five team now. With a victory over #3 Washington to win the Pac-12 and avenge their only loss, the Ducks would likely be a lock.

Having broken all of this down, we are left with Michigan coming in at the one spot, followed by Alabama at the two, Oregon at the three, and Florida State rounding out the top four, with Texas and Georgia as the first two out.

However, how these games are won will be significant when the committee tries to separate these teams. Georgia losing on the last play from an awful call might provide justification to put the Bulldogs in. Texas thrashing Oklahoma State 55–7 and Oregon squeaking by Washington in an ugly game could give the committee reason to put the Longhorns in. Ultimately, there are too many scenarios to play out. Starting at 8 p.m. on Friday, Dec. 1 and going until 11 p.m. on Saturday, Dec. 2, these playoffs will be the best 27 hours of college football we have had in a while. 

Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu.