The playoffs continue! After an incredible first round full of upsets and thrilling finishes, eight teams have moved on to round two with dreams of holding the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Although I’m flying solo this week without my friend Sam, I’m here to break down each matchup and give my predictions for the four teams making the conference finals.

*Note: this article was written before the Monday night games.

Eastern Conference 

#2 Boston Celtics vs. #3 Philadelphia 76ers 

This will undoubtedly be the best, or one of the best, matchups of the second round. These two teams have seemingly been destined for each other, as incredible regular season clashes have provided a glimpse of what to expect in a grueling seven-game series. The Celtics came off a surprisingly hard six-game series win versus the 7th seeded Hawks; while Boston looked dominant in the first two games, they faltered as play continued, allowing Atlanta to creep back before finishing the job in game six. On the other hand, the 76ers looked dominant in their four-game sweep of the Nets, never letting Brooklyn catch a glimmer of hope. 

Boston took the regular season series 3–1, and I like this matchup for them on paper. The Celtics have the defensive personnel to match up with Philly superstar center Joel Embiid, as the combination of Al Horford and Robert Williams will make life difficult for this season’s likely MVP. The health of Embiid is concerning though—after suffering a sprained LCL in the Brooklyn series, his status for Game 1 is uncertain. Even if he does play, he’ll certainly be hampered; star guards James Harden and Tyrese Maxey will need to perform in order for Philly to have any chance. Yet Boston also has the personnel for these guys, as Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White are tenacious defenders that have the length and strength to disrupt anyone in the league. It could get ugly for the Sixers offense, especially if the Boston defense helps off of forward PJ Tucker (a great defender but a streaky three-point shooter). 

The matchup doesn’t get much better for the Sixers on defense. Tucker will somewhat disrupt the rhythm of one of the Tatum-Brown superstar duo, but that of course leaves the other guy guarded by…Tobias Harris? Maybe Jalen McDaniels? I don’t love it. Smart, White, and Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brodgon are also more than capable guard creators for the Boston offense, and they’ll primarily be guarded by Harden and Maxey—terrific offense players who struggle on the other side of the ball. An underrated part of this equation is the presence of Horford, a big man who can shoot the three and allows Boston to play a five-out offense. Embiid is at his best defensively when he can stay in a contained space and defend the rim, but Horford’s marksmanship from outside will force Joel to play on the perimeter, which might be exceedingly difficult because of the injury. Of course, Philly has a shot; they have the best player in the series, are more well-rested, and these Celtics have a history of poor decision-making and execution in important moments. But I think Boston is just deeper and better.

Prediction: Celtics in 6.

#5 New York Knicks vs. #8 Miami Heat 

Well this was unexpected. Some had the Knicks winning their first round series against the Cavaliers (albeit not in five games), but almost no one had the eighth-seeded Heat taking down the top-seeded Bucks (somehow also in five games). Both Miami and New York are on fire, but this is going to be an ugly, low-scoring slugfest reminiscent of their infamous matchups of the 1990s. The Heat ride into the series on the back of superstar Jimmy Butler, who’s coming off one of the best playoff series of all time in which he averaged a jaw-dropping 37 points per game. The Knicks are led by the steady hand of Jalen Brunson, their prized free agent acquisition (and an all-around great guy) who torched the Cavs in round one. Get ready for some basketball that looks like every old NBA player’s dream. 

The Knicks took the regular season series 3-1, and this is a matchup that plays pretty solidly into their hands—assuming the Miami offense comes down to Earth after the ridiculous performance against Milwaukeee. The Heat shot eleven percentage points better from three in that series than they did in the regular season, so they’re due for some negative regression to the mean. That’s probably what New York will be counting on, as their defensive gameplan will most likely be to swarm Butler and make any other Miami player beat them. The Knicks have the personnel to make life difficult for Jimmy; Josh Hart and Quentin Grimes are rugged perimeter defenders (Grimes missed a chunk of the Cleveland series but is expected to play in Game one), and they have shot-blocking maven Mitchell Robinson on the back line to clean up any mistakes. While all eyes will be on Butler, I think Miami’s success on offense comes down to everyone else—if they can get quality production from Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and others, they become much more difficult to stop (ask the Bucks). 

The Knicks offense is a little less centralized, as while Brunson will be the Heat’s top target to neutralize, they have solid secondary creators behind him in RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley along with a bevy of capable role players. The key for them will be the health of forward Julius Randle—he’s the second-best player and offensive initiator on the team, but an ankle injury has put his status for the series in jeopardy. If Randle can’t go, a lot of pressure will be on Brunson, Barrett, and Quickley. Another thing to watch for will be the rebounding battle; the Knicks are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league, and the Heat are notoriously undersized. If New York can consistently get second-chances and impose their will on the glass, they might be able to swing the series. Ultimately, the team whose offense is slightly less ugly will win; I think the Knicks have the depth and diversity of attack to pull it out.

Prediction: Knicks in 6.

Western Conference 

#1 Denver Nuggets vs. #4 Phoenix Suns 

Both of these teams won their first-round series in five games, yet the matchups were closer than this indicates; Phoenix struggled a bit against a feisty and undermanned Clippers squad, and it took a Game 5 overtime at home for Denver to defeat a Timberwolves team that was starting to gain some momentum. Regardless, this might be the hardest series to predict in the entire second round—the Suns and Nuggets split the season series 2-2, and both teams have similar strengths (incredible offenses) and weaknesses (defenses that are meh at best).  

Top-seeded Denver is led on offense by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, an incredible big man whose lethal passing is the key to their attack. It’s currently unknown whether Phoenix has the personnel to even make life difficult for Jokic—Suns center Deandre Ayton can be a solid defender when engaged (this is a key distinction), and while star forward Kevin Durant can offer some rim protection, Jokic has the strength to bully him in the post. Phoenix also has to worry about Jamal Murray, Denver’s second option and their best perimeter shot creator. Murray has been ramping up his play this year after a torn ACL sidelined him for all of the 2021-22 season, and he looked incredible in the Minnesota series. The Suns can try to counter Jamal’s presence with Josh Okogie, a strong and athletic guard defender, but this might hurt them on the offensive end (Okogie’s a poor three pointer shooter, which will mess with Phoenix’s spacing). This will be the challenge of the series for Suns coach Monty Williams—he needs to find the optimal balance between offensive and defensive talent. He’ll also need to contain Denver’s phenomenal role players, as Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope thrive off the attention that Jokic and Murray generate. 

Phoenix is led on offense by the extremely skilled trio of Durant, Devin Booker, and Chris Paul, and the Nuggets will face a similar challenge attempting to stop them. Denver will probably end up giving Gordon the Durant assignment, hoping Aaron’s strength and athleticism will be able to bother one of the top players in the league. Caldwell-Pope will draw the Booker assignment, leaving Paul to be guarded by Jamal Murray. This will be a key matchup to watch in the series, as if Durant and Booker are ever struggling with the talented defensive duo of Gordon and Caldwell-Pope, Phoenix might turn to Paul to attack the vulnerable Murray. Another dynamic to watch for will be Jokic’s ability to defend in space; Nikola doesn’t move well on the perimeter, and the Suns’ talented trio loves to run high pick and roll to generate pull-up jump shooting opportunities. If Jokic can hold up on the outside and force Phoenix to attack the rim, Denver will have success. This series is going to be so close; I’m going to go with the Suns because I think Durant is the best player in the series and is going to have some legendary performances, but it might just be a coin flip.

Prediction: Suns in 7.

#6 Golden State Warriors vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers 

The whole world is going to be watching this one, and it might be the very last time we see LeBron James and Stephen Curry clash in a playoff series. The Lakers took down the second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies in six games, closing out the series with a dominant home win that was over at halftime. The Warriors survived an incredible series against the young Sacramento Kings, pulling out a road Game 7 victory thanks to 50(!) points from Curry—the most ever in a Game 7. 

James and Anthony Davis lead the Lakers physical offensive attack, pressuring the rim to create opportunities for themselves and others. But Los Angeles also has incredible depth around their two stars, maybe even more than they had during their 2020 championship run. Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Dennis Schroder are capable guard initiators, and while they’ve all had issues with consistency the Lakers just need one of them to play well to have a shot in every game. Trade-deadline acquisition Rui Hachimura has also been a revelation at the forward position, adding some solid three point shooting and secondary creation. Golden State will likely match Lebron up with Andrew Wiggins, one of the best defenders in the league who might struggle against the sheer strength of James. The Warriors are probably better equipped to handle Davis, as the defensive duo of Kevon Looney and Draymond Green gave Kings star Domantas Sabonis nightmares in the first round. But the Lakers true offensive ceiling in this series will again come down to the role players—if any of them consistently perform game after game, the Warriors’ defense is in trouble. 

Golden State’s offense is a complex combination of movement and shooting led by the genius of Curry, but the Lakers have the defensive personnel to make things difficult. Steph will obviously get his points(any player that great is going to score) but he’s going to have to hit some incredibly tough shots, as Schroder will probably be pestering him all series. Klay Thompson and Wiggins will provide some offensive help as well, but the X factor of this series for the Warriors might be Jordan Poole; he’s their only legitimate dribble creator outside of Curry, but he struggled mightily against Sacramento. If Poole has it going, Golden State is almost impossible to stop. I think the Lakers will match Lebron up with Looney while allowing Davis to guard Green—both Warriors big men are poor shooters, which will allow Los Angeles to help off of them and have a physical paint presence. This is going to be another incredibly close series, but I’m ultimately riding with the Lakers because of their strength, athleticism, and defense. I think they have the tools to make every game ugly and low-scoring, which will benefit their bigger, more physical players. Regardless, let’s appreciate the greatness we’re about to see from James and Curry, two of the best to ever play the game. 

Prediction: Lakers in 7.

As good as the first round was, I think I’m even more excited for this one; every matchup could truly go either way, and that just makes it even more fun to watch. As always, time to drop some additional predictions before I go:

1. Lebron James drops 40+ points some time during the Warriors series and promptly posts about it on Instagram the next day.
2. Draymond Green leaves a supportive comment on Lebron’s post even though James is literally posting about cooking his team.
3. Jimmy Butler starts beefing with Spike Lee at some point during the Knicks-Heat series. 

A message from Sam:

“It’s Sam here. I was unable to contribute to the article (thanks to Teddy for carrying like Curry on Sunday) but I have to come and give a couple of my predictions

1. Chris Paul will have a clutch performance early in the series but proceed to fold in the coming games (like always).
2. Multiple ejections occur in the Celtics vs. 76ers series.
3. Someone in the media brings up the debate between Curry and LeBron all-time and all hell breaks loose.”

Teddy Benchley can be reached tbenchley@wesleyan.edu.