It is officially Draft Week! Personally, the NFL Draft is my favorite day of the year as an NFL fan (yes, more than any of the games). Despite the draft taking place this upcoming Thursday, there is still so much uncertainty regarding how it will unfold. Using film, rumors, and my gut feeling, let me attempt to predict how the first 10 picks will play out.

Carolina Panthers #1: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama. 

Bryce Young is the consensus #1 pick, sitting at -2000 (20–1 favorite) to be selected first overall. Young won the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore, becoming the first Crimson Tide quarterback to ever receive the award. Young is super instinctive when it comes to avoiding the rush; he plays like he has eyes in the back of his head and displays an elite ability to get the pass off, even under pressure. He is extremely poised in the pocket; he knows when to escape and make a play on the run and when to stay put and continue through his progressions. Despite concerns regarding Young’s height, his skill and maturity outweigh the risks. The Alabama product has drawn comparisons to Russell Wilson, and rightfully so. His creativity and ability to make something out of nothing is a skill that cannot be taught. The Panthers will take Young and solve the quarterback issues that have plagued them since Cam Newton.

Indianapolis Colts #2 (Trade with Texans): Will Levis, QB, Kentucky.
The Texans have to take a quarterback, right? It looked that way until recent reports suggested that Houston could look to add a defensive player. They are supposedly hoping to secure Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next year. However, I still expect the Texans to take a quarterback. Many expect that to be C. J. Stroud, the talented Ohio State quarterback. Personally, I think Houston favors Kentucky’s Will Levis. While Houston likes Levis, I believe Indianapolis likes him more and will be willing to give the Texans an enticing package to move up to #2 and take the Kentucky quarterback (more to come on why I think Indy moves up). There’s also lot to like about Levis, who, standing at 6’4” and weighing 230 pounds, has the body type NFL front offices dream of. He has a cannon for an arm and claims that he can throw the ball 80 yards. A worry for many quarterbacks with strong arms is often their accuracy and slow release. This is not the case for Levis, who has an elite quick release and consistently hits his receivers in stride. Levis had some shortcomings in his senior season, throwing 10 interceptions compared to only 19 touchdowns. Some of this can be attributed to his slow and sometimes poor decision making, but his lackluster supporting cast is more responsible for his struggles. Houston will not be thrilled at the idea of allowing their division rival to draft their quarterback of choice, but a couple of future day-two picks should be able to convince them to move down. Ultimately, I expect whoever selects at #2 to take Levis and let their coaching staff help turn him into a superstar.

Arizona Cardinals #3: Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama.

Unlike the two teams above them, the Arizona Cardinals do not need a quarterback. The team has lost Chandler Jones, Haason Reddick, and J. J. Watt all within the past three years and are in desperate need of an elite pass rusher. Drafting Will Anderson will allow the Cardinals to secure the pass rusher that they have long lacked. At 6’4” and 240 pounds, Anderson has the ideal size for an NFL defensive end. He has a quick first step off the line of scrimmage and displays excellent technique in his pass-rushing moves, using his hands well to shed blockers and get to the quarterback. He also possesses good awareness in run defense, setting the edge and making tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Anderson is equally effective as a stand-up edge rusher or with his hand in the dirt as a traditional defensive end. He has the speed to cover ground in space and the strength to hold up against larger offensive linemen. As a sophomore, Anderson recorded 17.5 sacks, a mark good enough for 4th all-time. His sack numbers took a step back this season, but this is not the fault of Anderson and rather the result of most teams double-teaming him. If the Cardinals make a selection at #3, I expect it to be Anderson. It is possible, however, with high demand for quarterbacks, that Arizona will receive a compelling offer that entices them to trade down.

Houston Texans #4 (Trade with Colts): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida. 

The Colts are in an interesting position sitting at #4. Regardless of what happens ahead of them, they will be able to select one of the top four quarterbacks. If the Colts do not see much separating Young, Levis, Stroud, and Richardson they will be more than happy to stay at #4 and let one of them fall into their lap. However, if Indianapolis significantly prefers one of them, they could try and trade up to #2. As I said before, I think Will Levis is the guy the Colts desire, so if Indy believes one of the top three teams will select Levis, I expect them to trade up. If Levis is not positioned to go in the top three, I expect the Colts to take him here at #4. If Indy trades up with Houston and the Texans are slotted at #4, I expect them to take Anthony Richardson. Richardson has the best measurables of maybe any quarterback ever. Standing at 6’5” and weighing 240 pounds with only 10% of that weight being body fat, Richardson is a freak. Unlike most quarterbacks of this size, Richardson has impressive speed. The 21-year-old reportedly runs a 4.4 40-yard dash, which is believable when you watch his college tape. At Florida, Richardson excelled in running the ball, recording 713 rushing yards on 97 carries. His 7.3 yards per carry ranked #4 in the country. The New Jersey native also possesses immense arm talent, with the ability to throw the ball 75 yards. Richardson has a quick release and when in rhythm he can make any throw. I expect the Texans to pass on Stroud (who many think they will take) and select Richardson.

Seattle Seahawks #5: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech. 

By the time Seattle is on the clock, I expect that three quarterbacks will have been taken. The Seahawks saw Geno Smith break out last season and after giving him a huge extension, it is unlikely they will draft a quarterback here. Seattle will definitely receive offers from teams hoping to move up, but I expect them to stay put and select defensive end from Texas Tech Tyree Wilson. Wilson has ideal size for a defensive end in the NFL, standing at around 6’6” and weighing approximately 270 pounds. He possesses a strong and athletic build, with long arms and a good wingspan that he uses effectively to disrupt passing lanes and make plays. Wilson has shown versatility in his ability to play multiple positions along the defensive line. He has lined up as a traditional defensive end in a 4-3 scheme, as well as an edge rusher in a 3-4 scheme, showcasing his ability to adapt to different defensive systems and excel in multiple roles. The Seahawks’ weakness last year was their front seven, and adding Wilson will help improve the defense.

Detroit Lions #6: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois.

After trading away former top-five pick Jeff Okudah, it has been expected that the Lions will find his replacement through the draft. Despite his smaller stature, Witherspoon’s quickness and tenacity make him the best man coverage cornerback in this draft. There are minor concerns regarding his tackling technique and physicality, but the Lions’ coaching staff, led by Dan Campbell, have the expertise to refine and improve these areas.

Las Vegas Raiders #7: C. J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State. 

Despite acquiring Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, the Raiders have made it very clear they are still in the market for a quarterback. If Stroud, who was a 3-1 favorite to go #1 overall only a couple of weeks ago, is available at #7, the Raiders will not hesitate to select him. At 6’3” and 218 pounds, Stroud is a prototypical pocket-passer with a great feel for the game. The Ohio State product is a rhythm passer, who gets the ball out quickly by making split-second decisions. He has good zip, excellent ball placement, and has demonstrated elite touch down the seam and good placement on post-corner and flag routes. Stroud is undoubtedly the best pocket passer in this draft; his accuracy is on par with most starting quarterbacks in the NFL. If all four of the quarterbacks are gone by #7, expect the Raiders to go with the talented corner from Oregon, Christian Gonzalez.

Atlanta Falcons #8: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas.

Since man first roamed the earth, humans have agreed on many things. They have disagreed on many more. Most prevalent among these disagreements is whether you should take a running back in the top 15. A talented and versatile running back can have an immediate impact on a team’s offense, providing a dynamic element to the running game. However, it can be risky to invest such a high pick in a running back due to their shorter career span, susceptibility to injuries, and potential for decline in production over time. This is all a fancy way of saying some pundits would take a running back top five while others wouldn’t take that same guy anywhere in the top 40. None of the teams in the top seven will be interested in a running back, making the Atlanta Falcons the first team faced with the temptation of selecting Bijan Robinson. Robinson possesses a rare combination of size, speed, and agility that makes him a true game-changer on the field. He has a powerful running style with a keen ability to break tackles, shed defenders, and gain yards after contact. He is an effective receiver out of the backfield, with soft hands and the ability to create mismatches in the passing game. Robinson is a top-five talent in the eyes of most scouts, and I expect the Falcons to take him and ignore the concerns that come with taking an RB this early.

Chicago Bears #9: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia. 

The Chicago Bears possessed the #1 pick, but since they already have their franchise QB, Justin Fields, they traded down. The Bears have many needs, but there isn’t one glaring hole, leaving the team poised to select the best available player. Jalen Carter is in the opinion of many experts, myself included, the most talented player in the draft. Carter has an impressive blend of size, strength, and athleticism that allows him to excel as a run-stopper and pass-rusher. His explosiveness off the snap and ability to penetrate gaps and disrupt plays in the backfield is unlike anything I have ever seen from a defensive tackle in college. Carter also possesses excellent hand placement and technique, which allows him to control offensive linemen and disrupt plays in the trenches. There are off-the-field concerns regarding Carter (he was charged with reckless driving that was connected to the death of his teammate and a recruitment staffer). As long as Chicago feels comfortable that this incident was a fluke in Carter’s character, they will not hesitate to draft him should he be available. 

New York Jets #10 (Trade with Eagles): Peter Skoronski, OG, Northwestern. 

Over the past few years, Howie Roseman has established himself as the best general manager when it comes to the draft. The Eagles are coming off of a Super Bowl appearance, and they don’t really have any glaring needs. The two positions that I believe the Eagles will look to target are cornerback and edge. If Lukas Van Ness, Christian Gonzalez, Witherspoon, Carter, or Robinson are available at #10, I imagine Howie will look to trade back a couple of spots. I think a likely trade partner will be the New York Jets, who are currently selecting at #15. The Jets are positioned to take an offensive lineman in the first round, but so are the Tennessee Titans, who sit at #11. If New York wants to ensure they get their lineman of choice, I could see them moving up. I expect that player to be Peter Skoronski from Northwestern. Skoronski possesses a strong and powerful frame, which allows him to anchor well against pass-rushers and create movement in the run game. He also carries good athleticism for his size, displaying quick feet and agility that help him in both pass protection and run blocking. If Philly doesn’t feel they can still get one of these elite defenders later in the draft, Howie will be content staying put.

Here’s the thing about mock drafts: it is likely that most of my predictions will be wrong. My mock is centered around the belief that a QB is being taken at #2. If Houston decides to take a defender at #2, then everything that follows will be different. Seattle, Detroit, Vegas, and Atlanta all have quarterbacks but could still be interested in drafting one this year. We could also see one of those four teams trading down with a team like Minnesota or Tampa. Houston is slotted to draft again at #12, so they could potentially trade up and still get one of the four quarterbacks. My point is, nobody knows what is going to happen, and that is what makes the NFL draft so amazing!

Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu.