The postseason is here! After a long regular season full of drama, excitement, and far too many injuries, we’re finally at a spot where every game matters. There is more parity than ever in the NBA, and we have legitimately no idea who we’re going to see in the finals; if we did, we’d have bet on it (obviously kidding, gambling is evil). Here are our four matchups to watch in the first round of the playoffs, along with our predictions for each matchup.

Sacramento Kings (#3 Seed) vs. Golden State Warriors (#6 Seed) 

The Kings have been undoubtedly the biggest surprise of the season. Sacramento was (+40000) to win the Pacific Division at the start of the regular season, but the stellar play of Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox helped the Kings win the division and make the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. On the other hand, the Golden State Warriors have been one of the most disappointing teams, finishing sixth in the western conference despite returning most of their key contributors from last season’s championship team. Nonetheless, the Warriors are still dangerous and enter this series as the -300 favorites. (Again, we don’t endorse gambling). 

Sam: Despite the Warriors’ struggles this season, as long as the core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green is intact, Golden State will be contenders. But it was “the other guys” that allowed the Warriors to win it all. Andrew Wiggins averaged 17 points and eight rebounds during the postseason and provided stellar perimeter defense against some of the best wings in the game. Wiggins missed the majority of the back end of the season due to personal matters, and his return to his 2022 form will be imperative for Golden State. As Teddy mentions, Sacramento struggles defensively, and I expect the Warriors offense to carve them up and make it a quick series. Warriors in 5.

Teddy: This was probably the best matchup Golden State could have drawn out of the top seeds in the West. Sacramento is incredible offensively, but they have the 24th-ranked defensive rating in the league and are relatively new to the playoff environment (this will be star point guard Fox’s first postseason ever). The Warriors, on the other hand, are playoff veterans—but this is not exactly the same team that won the finals last year. Curry remains one of the top five players in the league, and Green and Thompson will continue to produce, yet there are serious questions about this team’s depth and ability to perform on the road (they had the fourth-worst road record in the league this season). I think Golden State’s experience and the fact that they have the best player in the series will ultimately prevail, but not after some hard-fought battles against a young and talented Sacramento squad. Warriors in 6.

Phoenix Suns (#4 seed) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (#5 seed)

The Clippers and Suns will square off in a rematch of the 2021 Western Conference Finals. Phoenix struggled to begin the season, leading general manager James Jones to make a blockbuster trade that landed Kevin Durant. The Suns are 8–1 in games Durant plays, and they enter the playoffs as the favorites to come out of the west. The Clippers similarly made a splash at the trade deadline, acquiring former MVP Russell Westbrook. Westbrook has played well, averaging 16 points on an impressive 49% from the field since coming to LA. The Clippers are led by their star forwards Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Unfortunately, George is rehabbing a knee injury and is expected to miss the beginning of the series.

Sam: The Suns might be the most dangerous team in the playoffs, but they’re also untrustworthy. Durant has only played nine games for the Suns, so it will be interesting to see if the lack of chemistry will be prevalent. Even if it isn’t, let’s not forget the Suns’ biblical collapse against the Mavericks last year and Chris Paul’s tendency to underperform every single playoffs. The Clippers will certainly be hurt by the absence of Paul George, and if they want any hope at pulling off the upset, George cannot miss more than three games. Still, I think the Suns’ lack of experience and perimeter defense will allow Leonard and Westbrook to steal a game in Phoenix. I foresee this series going seven games, but ultimately, Phoenix is too talented to lose in the first round. Suns in 7.

Teddy: The concerns about Phoenix’s lack of chemistry and perimeter defense are legit. That being said, I think we’re underrating how ridiculous the Suns offense is—Durant is still a top 3 player in the league when healthy, Devin Booker has the ceiling of a top 8-10 player, and I think Paul is perfectly slotted sharing the third-option responsibilities with Deandre Ayton. Who the fifth player in their starting lineup will be remains unknown, but regardless, I think Phoenix has enough talent and shot-making to get past a hampered Clippers team. If George was fully playing, this would be a different story, but barring a miracle of modern medicine or an incredible series from Westbrook or Norman Powell, Kawhi’s not going to have enough offensive help. Suns in 6.

Cleveland Cavaliers (#4 seed) vs. New York Knicks (#5 seed)

The Cleveland Cavaliers face the New York Knicks in a series littered with compelling matchups and storylines. The Cavs are led by star guard Donovan Mitchell, who is averaging 27 points per game. Before Mitchell was traded to Cleveland last off-season, it was expected he would land in New York. When the Knicks missed out on Mitchell, they signed Jalen Brunson to a four-year contract. Brunson has excelled, recording 24 points and six assists a game on 49/42/83 percent splits. The other half of the Knicks duo is forward Julius Randle, who is battling an ankle sprain and has an uncertain status for the series. 

Sam: The Cavaliers finished with 51 wins, which marked the first time they have eclipsed 50 wins without LeBron James since 1993. The Cavs excel defensively, boasting the number one defense in every category. Most of this success can be attributed to the stellar interior defense of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, who each average over two blocks plus steals a game. Cleveland is led offensively by Mitchell and Darius Garland, but the pair are suspect on the defensive end. I expect Brunson, Immanuel Quickley, and the other Knicks guards to attack and have their way with the Cavaliers backcourt. With that being said, I am going to go with the best player in this series, Mitchell, to propel the Cavaliers in a close game seven. Cavaliers in 7.

Teddy: This one is going to be good. Allen and Mobley led an incredible Cavs defense in the regular season, but I think Cleveland’s scheme gets a bit exposed in the playoffs—as Sam mentioned, both Garland and Mitchell can be attacked defensively, which I fully expect Brunson and Quickley to do when New York needs a big bucket. On the other end, I think the Knicks’ defense plays perfectly into the Cavs offense; Cleveland relies heavily on their guards to score points and create, but New York’s defensive strength is their combination of dogged guard defenders (Quickley, Josh Hart, Brunson, maybe even some Miles McBride). Mitchell and Garland are going to have to hit tough shots all series, and even when they do get by their defenders they’ll run into a paint defense sagging heavily off Allen, Mobley, and whoever the fifth starter on the floor is. If the Cavaliers’ guards are hot all series and their fifth starter (Isaac Okoro, Caris LeVert, or Dean Wade) can consistently knock down shots and compete on the defensive end, they’ll win; I just don’t think you can count on that for seven games. Knicks in 6.

Memphis Grizzlies (#2 seed) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (#7 seed)

Perhaps the most interesting series of the first round is the second seeded Grizzlies vs. the seventh-seeded Lakers. Memphis is deep, young, and talented, boasting another successful regular season despite some um…questionable decision making from star point guard Ja Morant (if you have no idea what I’m talking about, google Ja Morant scandal). Even when Morant doesn’t play, the Grizzlies boast an impressive supporting cast that includes Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks. On the other side, the Lakers ride into the playoffs off one of their most up-and-down seasons in recent memory; they started the season 2-10, traded point guard Westbrook mid-season, and promptly had a remarkable turnaround that vaulted them from the depths of the Western Conference into the seventh seed. Yet despite the drama, Los Angeles always has a shot as long as superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis are healthy and hooping; when those two are on, the Lakers can beat anyone. 

Sam: On paper, the Grizzlies are championship contenders. They have star power (Morant), an elite defensive unit (led by Brooks and Jackson) and a great supporting cast. Despite this, most experts do not expect the Grizzlies to make it out of the first round. I think this is an oversight, as this Memphis team is well-coached and a talented team. Their first-round matchup is also favorable on paper. Aside from Davis, the Lakers do not have big men that are offensive threats. This should allow Jackson to roam the paint, where he is most effective. With that being said, there is something about Memphis that feels fraudulent, and although the Lakers have their problems, they also have James and Anthony Davis. As long as the Lakers role players do not fold (which is very possible) expect the Lakers to advance to the next round. Lakers in 6. 

Teddy: Memphis is a little deeper, has a little more all-around talent, and holds home-court advantage for the series. But the Lakers have two top-10 players and a solid supporting cast, a recipe similar to the one that won them the 2020 NBA championship. This series is going to be ugly—both teams have great defenses and less than great offenses. The matchups will make this fact exceedingly clear, as the Grizzlies have the personnel to match up with the Lakers and vice versa. James always brings his best in the playoffs, but this is going to come down to the play of Anthony Davis; if he can hit shots and bring Jackson out of the paint, it’ll do wonders for the Los Angeles offense. On the other end, if Davis competes on defense and protects the rim at the level he has recently, it’ll make life exceptionally hard for the high-flying Morant and the rest of the Grizzlies offense. This is going to be a great series, but I’m going to take the absolute star power and championship pedigree of Los Angeles. Lakers in 7. 

Hopefully, you guys are as excited about the NBA playoffs as we are! Along with our series picks, we are going to offer a couple of extra predictions:

1. Danny Green will trend on Twitter at some point in the playoffs.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo will say something horny in a press conference.
3. The 76ers will choke.
4. Dillon Brooks will do something to make everyone dislike him.

Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu. 

Teddy Benchley can be reached at tbenchley@wesleyan.edu.