c/o Ed Zurga
When Rogers Hornsby, the legendary Cardinals second baseman, was asked what he did during the offseason, he said, “I stare out the window and wait for spring.” I wasn’t exactly doing the same thing, but as a big baseball fan, I was counting the days down until Opening Day. For fans, predicting the outcome of the season is a beloved annual tradition. So here’s my post-Opening Day division-by-division preview. I promise they’ll be right, unless they’re wrong. After all, that’s why they play the games.
AL East: New York Yankees
In the American League’s strongest division, four of the teams are capable of making the playoffs, but the Yankees are still going to be the top dog. The defending division champions re-signed the reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge and added Carlos Rodon to a solid rotation, not to mention top prospects that will be coming up to the big leagues this season. The Toronto Blue Jays won 92 games last season and probably will come somewhere near that figure again. They could still challenge for the division title, though, if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. returns to MVP form and José Berrios returns to not-the-worst-pitcher-in-the-league form. The Baltimore Orioles will be strong this season and could finish in third and snatch a Wild Card spot. If young pieces like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Grayson Rodriguez perform well, and if their pitching is passable, they could come up with 90 wins. The Tampa Bay Rays snuck into the playoffs last year, but were bounced in the Wild Card Series. While it wouldn’t be very surprising to see them finish anywhere in the top four of the division, they’ll likely end up in third or fourth place. The Boston Red Sox finished last, and they won’t crawl out of the basement this season, probably losing more than the 84 they did last season.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
Like the AL East, there are multiple teams who could feasibly finish first, but unlike the East, it’s because the entire division is weak. The Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians, and Chicago White Sox could all finish on top with fewer than 90 wins. The Twins have a solid pitching rotation, and with good seasons from players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, who may or may not have an ankle, they could win around 90 games. The Guardians are definitely capable of repeating as division champions, as long as their young stars are able to replicate their 2022 successes. The White Sox, under the preserved corpse of Tony La Russa, finished at exactly .500 in a disappointing 2022. Although he has since left for health reasons, so has longtime first baseman Jose Abreu, and closer Liam Hendriks is out for the time being battling cancer. But the whole division is so terrible that they still have a shot at first. Despite some younger prospects coming up in Kansas City, the Royals should be having another season somewhere in the 65- or 70-win range. The Detroit Tigers will be fighting the Royals for last place in the Central during future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera’s final season, unless Javier Baez and Spencer Torkelson can figure something out.
AL West: Houston Astros
The Seattle Mariners should be strong this season; and after a bunch of free agent signings, the Texas Rangers will be intriguing. But it would be unwise to choose anyone except the Houston Astros, the 2022 World Series champions, to win the West. They have made the American League Championship Series an Astros invitational for the past six seasons, and there’s a good chance they’ll do it again this year. Below them will be Seattle, who broke their 21-year playoff drought in 2022. Of course, they’re led by AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez, who could become one of MLB’s superstars. Alongside Rodriguez, they have a strong rotation and a young lineup that could be one of the best in the league. The Texas Rangers haven’t finished above .500 in six seasons, but that should change this year. They spent over $200 million to land Jacob DeGrom and Nathan Eovaldi only a year after spending half a billion dollars on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, who both produced well in 2022. With a legendary new manager in Bruce Bochy, they could finish with a Wild Card spot. Ownership has not been as kind to the Los Angeles Angels, who (as it’s been mentioned a billion times) have two of the best players in baseball in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, who (as it’s also been mentioned a billion times) will be a free agent after this season. Their team is not well constructed around them, and Ohtani will walk or be traded if the team repeats their 2022 performance. The Oakland Athletics drew a crowd of 3,407 to see a walk-off 4-3 win last Tuesday, which was fewer than 11 of 13 AAA minor league games drew. It’s going to be a long, lonely, and loss-heavy season in Oakland.
NL East: Atlanta Braves
Yes, the New York Mets did sign Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga, among others, ballooning their payroll to a record $364 million, although they did eventually pass on Carlos Correa, who may or may not have an ankle. But the Atlanta Braves, who have won the division for five straight seasons, will still be the team to beat. Ronald Acuña Jr. will be in his second season back from a torn ACL and could be the NL MVP, adding to an already strong team that has a top-five rotation and a powerful lineup. The Mets will definitely put up a fight, though. They have one of baseball’s best infields, and their pitching is also top-notch (at least if their antique duo of Scherzer-Verlander can stay healthy). The Philadelphia Phillies made it to the World Series last year for the first time since 2009, and they added Trea Turner to a $300 million deal. But their lineup is a step below the Mets and the Braves, and the rotation behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola is iffy. They’ll make the playoffs, but probably not through a division title. The Miami Marlins have a chance to reach .500 this year, with reigning Cy Young, award-winning pitcher Sandy Alcantara, and AL batting champion Luis Arraez, but they probably won’t. Still, they’ll finish ahead of the Washington Nationals, who tore it all down last year and started Patrick Corbin, who has led MLB in losses for two straight years, on Opening Day. At least they won it all in 2019…
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers will be neck-and-neck for the division title, but the Cardinals should defend their crown. Their lineup is one of the best, with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who finished first and third in NL MVP voting last year, respectively. They also have added Willson Contreras and called up their highly touted prospect Jordan Walker. The Brewers are strong on pitching, with Corbin Burnes leading a rotation that could be the best in the league. The Chicago Cubs added Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Jameson Taillon, who make them a potential playoff contender if they’re lucky, and they’ll likely finish third. It will be a brutal season for the Cincinnati Reds, who inexplicably held a fire sale of all their best players last year following a pretty solid 2021 season and subsequently started 3-22 en route to their first 100-loss season in decades. The Pittsburgh Pirates will also be very, very bad. Like the Cardinals and Brewers at the top, the Pirates and Reds will be battling it out at the bottom.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
The 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers became the seventh team of all time to reach 110 wins (they had 111), set a single-season team wins record, and finished 22 games ahead of the San Diego Padres in the division race. Nevertheless, they got beat by those same Padres in the division series, making it a disappointing end to the season in Los Angeles. Despite their playoff failure, they’re too strong to not repeat as divisional champions. If their stars don’t produce for some reason, they’ll find a mediocre utility player playing in the minor leagues to do a convincing Babe Ruth impression for a while. But San Diego will come closer than 22 games this season, after signing Xander Bogaerts and with Fernando Tatis Jr. returning to a lineup that already has Manny Machado and Juan Soto. The Arizona Diamondbacks could add a few wins and leapfrog the San Francisco Giants in the standings if their young rotation does well again and top prospect Corbin Carroll hits the ground running. The Giants’ biggest move of the offseason was one they eventually didn’t make, taking back their 13-year, $350 million contract they offered to Carlos Correa, who may or may not have an ankle. They didn’t do much besides that, and will win around 80 games. The Colorado Rockies will combine an awful rotation with a lackluster offense, which equals what could be the league’s worst record.
Spencer Landers can be reached at sklanders@wesleyan.edu.