Path to the College Football Playoffs

It seems like just yesterday we were waking up at 12:30 a.m. to watch Nebraska University play Northwestern University in Ireland for week one of college football. About three months later, we are nearing the end of the regular season, and only a handful of teams have a chance to finish in the Final Four and make the college football playoffs. I’m using the percentage chance that each team will make the playoffs as evaluated by FiveThirtyEight. With this in mind, let’s go conference by conference and take a look at the teams still alive in the playoff hunt. 

Southeastern Conference Football (SEC): Georgia 87%, Tennesse 46%, LSU 15%

The Tennessee Volunteers have certainly been the biggest surprise of the season. The emergence of quarterback Hendon Hooker has resurrected the Volunteers’ football program for the first time since the Peyton Manning era. The Vols knocked off LSU and Alabama in consecutive weeks and earned the #1 spot in the initial college football (CFB) ranking. Despite a 27–13 loss to Georgia two weekends ago, Tennessee still has a path to qualify for the playoffs. The Vols must win their remaining two games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, which is likely considering those teams have a combined record 10–10 (South Carolina 6–4, Vanderbilt 4–6) on the year. But even with these wins, they will likely still need other competitors to falter if they want to reach the playoffs.

After winning the Championship last season, the Georgia Bulldogs have not lost a step and currently sit atop the college football (CFB) rankings with a 10–0 record. Dominant wins over a one-loss Tennessee and a two-loss Oregon highlight Georgia’s outstanding resume. The Bulldogs will travel to Kentucky before concluding the regular season against Georgia Tech, two games that they should win handily. Georgia has already clinched the SEC East regular season title and will face LSU for the SEC title on December 3rd. If the Dogs run the table they will be the #1 seed. But should Georgia falter and lose to LSU, things get interesting for them and the rest of the SEC. 

An upset in the SEC Championship game would force the playoff committee to consider a two-loss SEC champion LSU Tigers, who would hold wins over Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss. Tennessee trounced LSU 40-13 in October, so the Vols would also have their resume boosted now having the claim of beating the SEC champions. All three teams would have a win and a loss against each other, and while the Tigers would be the SEC champions, they also have two losses. It would be difficult to differentiate between LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia; FiveThirtyEight currently gives the three teams a 76%, 48%, and 46% chance respectively should this scenario unfold. Could the committee put three SEC teams in the playoffs? This is possible depending on what happens in the other divisions.

Big Ten Conference: Ohio State (67%), Michigan (44%)

The Big Ten has been very top-heavy this season, with the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines three games better than the next-best Big Ten squad. Michigan and Ohio State are in relatively the same position heading into Week 12; both teams sit undefeated at 10–0 and are Top 10 in the country in scoring offense and scoring defense. Neither squad has had the opportunity to play against particularly difficult competitors: the Buckeyes have two ranked wins and the Wolverines have one. Michigan and Ohio State will close out the regular season facing off against each other in the iconic matchup known as the “The Game,” a tradition that dates back to 1897. The path for both these teams is straightforward: if win “The Game,” they’ll get a spot in the playoffs. The loser of the game will find themselves needing teams ahead of them to falter if they want to sneak in. 

Big 12 Conference: TCU (49%)

Every year there is an undefeated team that is not as good as their record seems to indicate, and TCU seems to be that squad this year. The Horned Frogs are undefeated and ranked fourth in the nation,  yet this week they are only favored by 2.5 points against a 6–4 Baylor team coming off a 31–3 home loss against Kansas State. Vegas clearly does not view TCU as a legit team, and neither do many experts. The Horned Frogs enter this week coming off a statement win against a solid Texas squad. The prior four games, however, consisted of wins by ten points or less despite facing backup quarterbacks in all of those matchups. Although TCU may not pass the eye test, they are currently ranked fourth and will be a lock as an undefeated Power Five champion should they run the table. But the Horned Frog’s path to finishing undefeated is no cakewalk. Baylor is formidable, and TCU also faces a scrappy Iowa State squad before a rematch against Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game. If the Horned Frogs lose a game, they will find themselves on the outside looking in and needing chaos to make the playoffs.

Pac-12 Conference: USC (17%)

After Oregon got upset by Washington this past weekend, the USC Trojans are the only one-loss team left in the conference. USC had an eventful offseason, acquiring head coach Lincoln Riley and star Quarterback Caleb Williams from Oklahoma. The Trojans are currently 9–1 but have no ranked wins. Fortunately for USC, they finish their regular season against UCLA and Notre Dame, two ranked teams that a win over would be impressive. The Trojans must win both of these games and then win the Pac-12 title, where they will face either Oregon or Utah. Ending the season with three straight ranked wins and a conference championship would thrust USC into the middle of the playoff conversation. 

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC): Clemson (39%), UNC (13%)

The ACC is undoubtedly the worst power five conference this season and saw their chances of producing a playoff team shrink significantly when Clemson fell to Notre Dame 35–14. Clemson and North Carolina, both 9–1 with sole losses to Notre Dame, are still in the playoff hunt but will need chaos and teams ahead of them to stumble. The Tigers have one Top 25 win and many of their other wins have been very narrow. The Tar Heels’ resume is even worse, consisting of zero Top 25 wins with six of their nine wins coming by one possession. The two teams will face each other in the ACC Championship and while neither team has been impressive so far, the winner will be a one-loss power five champion. If the ACC wants to send a team to the playoffs, two teams have to lose from the group of USC, Tennessee, and LSU, and even in that very low probability situation, they still might be on the outside looking in.

The Scenarios

Should Georgia lose to LSU in the SEC Championship game the entire playoff picture will become chaotic. For our sake, let’s assume Georgia beats LSU (very likely as they will be 17+ point favorites). Georgia will be the #1 ranked team and the winner of Ohio State vs. Michigan will take the #2 spot. If TCU wins, they will finish in the Final Four, and, in turn, Tennessee, USC, the loser of Michigan vs. Ohio State, and the ACC champion will vie for the last spot. In the most recent rankings, Tennessee is the highest-ranked one-loss team so the question becomes whether is it possible for USC, the loser of “The Game” or the ACC champion to jump the Volunteers. The answer to this question may lie deeper than wins and losses but how impressive or unimpressive the wins or losses are. For example, if Tennessee barely beats a 4–6 Vanderbilt team the playoff committee would likely mark them down. Should TCU suffer a loss, they will join the aforementioned teams in contending for the final two spots. 

These next few weeks will be chaotic and might produce more questions than answers. What makes college football so special is how unpredictable it can be. Regardless, there is nothing better than kicking back on a Saturday and watching college football.

My Predictions:

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Tennessee
4. USC
5. TCU
6. Michigan

Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu.