c/o Nathaniel S. Butler, ESPN
We’re back! The NBA season has been filled with surprise upstart teams (Jazz, Trail Blazers) and underachievers (76ers, Heat), as well as young players making leaps and bidding for their first All-Star appearances. Here are five early storylines we’ve noticed and are definitely keeping an eye on as the season progresses.
Shai What You Want to Shai
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been one of the most impressive players so far this season. The 24-year-old phenom from Canada is in the midst of his best season to date and is solidifying himself as a top-tier guard in the NBA. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.3 points per game and dishing out nearly seven assists, but most importantly has a Thunder team many predicted to be at the bottom of the league currently sitting at 4–4. There are few players who are as dangerous when they get downhill. If a defender is somehow able to stay in front of Shai’s quick first step, he will then use his strength to create space for his mid-range jumper, which he is currently knocking down at a 47% clip. Gilgeous-Alexander is also a great playmaker, and if defenses elect to double Shai, he is more than happy to kick it out to one of his teammates for open shots. His on-court impact is clear: when Gilgeous-Alexander is on the court this season, the Thunder outscore opponents by 9.5 points per 100 possessions. When he’s not on the court, the Thunder are outscored by 11.2 points per 100 possessions. Shai recently took home Western Conference Player of the Week honors, and you shouldn’t be surprised if he earns a few more of those throughout the season as he vies for his first All-Star appearance.
Was it Worth it?
The Minnesota Timberwolves made the playoffs last season for only the second time in the past 18 years, and a large part of that success was due to the dynamic duo of Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. This progress motivated Minnesota to make one of the biggest offseason moves this summer, trading five first-round picks and a plethora of role players to acquire Utah Jazz big man Rudy Gobert. The Wolves hoped that Gobert’s defensive presence could help take the team to the next level, but although his defensive impact has been felt, he has so far severely hindered their once-dynamic offense. Edwards had previously found much of his success in the paint, but Gobert’s inability to stretch the floor means Edwards often faces an extra defender when he is attacking the basket. The offense as a whole is hindered by Gobert. When the Frenchman is on the court, the Timberwolves’ offensive rating is 103.0, a staggering number considering the worst overall offensive rating in the league is 104.23. When Gobert is off the court, however, the Timberwolves offensive rating is 122.3, which would be best in the NBA by a wide margin. Their 5–5 record does not look terrible on the surface, but it is important to note that all five of the Timberwolves wins have come against teams that do not currently sit in the playoff picture. Minnesota is clearly talented, but if they cannot find a role for Gobert on offense their ceiling will be a first-round exit.
No One Saw This Coming
The Utah Jazz hit the rebuild button this offseason, trading away their All-Star duo of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell along with second-leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic. In return, the Jazz received a haul of draft picks, role players, and the relatively young duo of Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen. With the loss of their three best players, the Jazz over/under win total going into the season was set at 24.5 which was the 2nd lowest total. However, the Utah Jazz are currently 8–3 and boast the best record in the Western Conference. Yes, you read that right. The team that was believed to be the frontrunners for the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes is on pace for 60 wins. What’s most impressive is that their path has not been easy by any means: Utah has knocked off the Clippers, Nuggets, Lakers, Timberwolves, Pelicans, and the Grizzlies twice. Contrary to many of the top teams in the NBA, the Jazz do not have a star player. Instead, their roster is compiled of above-average players who fit very well together. Many of Utah’s players have spent their careers as role players and are now thriving with a more central role. Markkanen is having a breakout season and averaging a team-high 22 points and nine rebounds a game. After a slow start to the year, Sexton has come on and scored at least 15 points in each of his last five games. Even (gasp) Kelly Olynyk has rejuvenated his career and is shooting a league-best 59% from three. Will the Jazz keep it up and finish in the top four of the Western Conference? Most likely they will not, but then again, they have already surprised us once.
A Few More People Saw This Coming, but Still Not Many
On a similar note, it appears that both sides won the Donovan Mitchell trade! The Cavaliers’ big summer acquisition has been incredible to start the season and Cleveland is rolling. Mitchell is averaging around 31.5 points per game and around 6.5 assists per game for a team ranked second in the loaded Eastern Conference. He’s been the clear best player and closer for the Cavs, hitting big shot after big shot (see Cleveland’s big overtime win against Boston last week). And he’s even playing defense! Much maligned a season ago for his lackluster defensive effort on the Jazz, Mitchell has shown much more fight on that end so far this season. While we wouldn’t say he’s a good defensive player, his energy and intensity have made him passable, which is more than worth it given his ridiculous offensive impact. Perhaps the most impressive part of the Cavs’ early season success is the fact that they’ve done most of it without All-Star point guard Darius Garland, who recently returned from an eye injury. In the brief time that they’ve shared the floor, the Garland-Mitchell duo has been super exciting and the chemistry between the two has been evident. We still have our doubts about Cleveland, especially given the size of their backcourt defensively (both Garland and Mitchell are under 6’2”) and the probability that they will play goliaths Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen together in the playoffs (neither of them shoot well, which can be exposed in today’s NBA), but the early-season returns for the Cavaliers are very promising.
Um….Warriors?
We don’t personally subscribe to the championship-hangovers-are-real theory in the NBA, but we will admit that Golden State’s slow start is a little concerning. The Warriors are currently 13th in the Western Conference right now (yikes) and have lost five in a row (double yikes). The issue doesn’t seem to be with their classic championship core: Steph Curry is still Steph Curry, Klay Thompson has regressed a little but is still solid, and Draymond Green has slowly managed to put the punch-seen-round-the-world saga with Jordan Poole behind him. In fact, the Warriors’ starting lineup of Curry, Thompson, Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Kevon Looney has the third-best plus/minus of any starting five in the league. The problem is the bench. With the loss of important role players Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. in free agency, a huge burden has been placed on young guys like Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, and James Wiseman, and they simply don’t seem ready. Poole still brings a lot of offensive spark as a sixth man, but his defense is atrocious, resulting in him having a -10.4 net rating per 100 possessions so far. In short, the Warriors’ bench has been awful, and it’s costing them games. To be fair, Coach Steve Kerr is doing exactly what he should be. These young guys are going to have to play a big role if Golden State wants to make it back to the finals, so better they get everything ironed out in the regular season with consistent minutes. But will a turnaround happen in time? Or should the Warriors flip some of their young players for more established, win-now pieces that will increase their odds of making one last championship run? Golden State has a brilliant front office and there’s no reason to distrust them, but some difficult decisions might be ahead if the team keeps losing.
As we’ve established, it has been a fun and surprising start to the 2022-2023 NBA season! We’re going to leave some predictions for the coming weeks so we can come back and gloat during our next recap.
- The Hawks hand the Bucks their first loss tonight
- The Warriors win six of their next seven
- Neither Kyrie Irving nor Kevin Durant are on the Nets’ roster come the trade deadline
Teddy Benchley can be reached at tbenchley@wesleyan.edu.
Sam Weitzman-Kurker can be reached at sweitzmankur@wesleyan.edu.