Who cares about the Academy Awards? It’s an overlong and mind-numbingly dull ceremony that allows Hollywood to congratulate itself for the few “high-minded” movies it decides to put out each year. Still, I do enjoy getting disappointed by the arbitrary decisions of 5,783 out-of-touch voters (average age: 57). For those of us who care more than we want to admit, here’s a rundown of some of the major categories—along with my commentary and predictions:

 

Best Picture 

Nominees: “The Artist,” “The Descendants,” “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” “The Help,” “Hugo,” “Midnight in Paris,” “Moneyball,” “The Tree of Life,” “War Horse.”

What will win: At this point, “The Artist” is the frontrunner. This mostly silent black-and-white film about two fictional actors coping with Hollywood’s transition into talkies plays into the Academy’s nostalgia, and the leads—Bérénice Bejo and Jean Dujardin—exude old school charm.

What should win: “The Artist” is a fine film, but I prefer the sumptuous “Hugo,” the painful/painfully funny “The Descendents,” and “The Tree of Life,” a film that’s pretentious, heavy-handed, and undercooked, but also pretty spectacular.

What should have made it: This year, tearjerkers won the nomination over some of the more exciting, darker fare we’ve seen. “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” “The Help,” and “War Horse” could have been replaced by movies with some actual bite like “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” “Drive,” and especially the underappreciated “Melancholia.” Also, I’m sure some of you are asking, “Where’s the love for Harry, Ron, and Hermione?”

 

Best Director

Nominees: Michael Hazanavicus for “The Artist,” Alexander Payne for “The Descendants,” Martin Scorsese for “Hugo,” Woody Allen for “Midnight in Paris,” Terrance Malick for “The Tree of Life.”

Who will win: Three quarters of Best Director wins go to the director of the Best Picture, so if “The Artist” wins best picture, Frenchman Michael Hazanavicus might win as well. Be sure to check out the last two movies he’s made: the “OSS 117” series—hilarious James Bond and 60s spy movie spoofs starring a clumsier, but no less charming, Jean Dujardin.

 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Demián Bichir in “A Better Life,” George Clooney in “The Descendants,” Jean Dujardin in “The Artist,” Gary Oldman in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” Brad Pitt in “Moneyball.”

Who will win: This is Clooney’s third nomination, and it looks like he might actually win this year for his performance in “The Descendants.”

Who should win: George Clooney—it’s deserved. Ever notice how in movies like “Michael Clayton,” “Up in the Air,” or “The Descendants,” the camera will stay fixed on a silent George Clooney for abnormally long periods of time? It’s not just because he’s so damn handsome; Clooney’s good-humored yet slightly mournful expression covers pretty much the whole range of human emotion.

Who should  have made it: Michael Fassbender. He had an incredible year with strong performances in “Shame,” “A Dangerous Method,” and “X-Men: The Last Stand.”

 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Glenn Close in “Albert Nobbs,” Viola Davis in “The Help,” Rooney Mara in “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady,” Michelle Williams in “My Week with Marilyn.”

Who will win: It’s between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis, with Streep coming out as the frontrunner after her win at the Golden Globes.

Who should win: Given Meryl Streep’s surprise at her Golden Globe win, it seems that even she thinks that Viola Davis deserves it. Streep is certainly good as Margaret Thatcher in “The Iron Lady,” but I think the movie is so terrible that it devalues her performance.

Who should have made it: Other notable performances include Kristen Wiig in “Bridesmaids,” Charlize Theron in “Young Adult,” and Leila Hatami in “A Separation.” But Kirsten Dunst should have won it all for her wrenching portrayal of a depressive in “Melancholia”—she manages to come off as both cruel and extremely vulnerable.

 

Best Foreign Film

Nominees: “Bullhead,” Belgium; “Footnote,” Israel; “In Darkness,” Poland;” Monsieur Lazahr,” Canada; “A Separation,” Iran.

What will win: “A Separation,” a film about a domestic dispute between two couples—and the dissolution of one of the couples’ marriages. The fact that it’s from Iran, a country that has captured America’s attention quite a bit this year, can’t hurt.

What should win: Once again, it’s deserved— “A Separation.” It’s an incredible film, with naturalistic performances and a fantastic screenplay that has you changing your mind about who’s right and who’s telling the truth every few minutes.

What should have made it: As usual, a lot of great movies from abroad haven’t gotten the attention they deserve yet. Of the ones I’ve seen, I highly recommend “The Skin I Live In,” “Tomboy,” “Mysteries of Lisbon,” and “Once Upon a Time in Anatolia.”