On Tuesday night, members of the Roosevelt Institute sat down to discuss the recent protests in Egypt: Who started it? What do they want? And what does it all mean for us?
It began over a month ago in the largely neglected southern region of Tunisia. Protesters angered over high unemployment and lack of representation in King Ben Ali’s government utilized cell phones and the Internet with unprecedented success to get their message out to the rest of their countrymen and to the world at large. Only days later, the king and his family had fled Tunisia, leaving new ministers instated in by the opposition to run the country. Hopes are high now in Tunisia, but many are still uncertain.
Embolded by Tunisia’s dubious success, protesters from Alexandria to Cairo, from street vendors to university professors, have finally let their anger come to a boil after 30 years of frustration under President Hosni Mubarak. The Mubarak regime, however, has put up a little more of a fight than the Tunisian king. Though he has pledged not to run for his sixth term in the September elections, Mubarak has rejected demands that he step down immediately, and has made no promises concerning his son’s intentions to run in his stead. Fears are that even if Hosni himself were to give up the presidency, his son, Gamal, would resist change just as ardently. Will the protests succeed in keeping Mubarak Jr. out of elections? If so, who will step in? The current favorite is Mohamed ElBaradei, former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005. Sound like an unlikely candidate? Indeed, if ElBaradei can make a successful play for Egypt’s presidency, it will be a step in a new direction for the country, a direction that cheers nuclear disarmament and rejects violent, criminal abuses of authority. Other potential successors include a variety of opposition leaders, military officials, and the Muslim Brotherhood. While these candidates pose potential threats, they lack popular or international support.
As the world holds its breath for Egypt, other governments in the Middle East, following their neighbors lead, are finding themselves on the brink of their own protests, protests that may be on the same scale of those in Cairo. Most notable are Jordan and Yemen. The Jordanian king has reportedly dismissed highly unpopular members of his cabinet, and replaced them with disappointingly similar candidates, though at least a new set of faces. In Yemen, President Saleh has renounced both plans to rule for life and to instate hereditary rule. These new protests present a whole new set of questions and concerns. Innumerable questions come to mind on country, regional, and international scales. If the Yemeni President is ousted, what will become of America’s covert Yemen war? Will shifts in the region redefine foreign policy entirely? At this point, who knows.
Will 2011 be a turning point for the Middle East? See for yourself on Al Jazeera English http://english.aljazeera.net/.