The New York Giants have put themselves in an extremely tough situation. It is the only team left in the NFL with a chance to derail history and end the New England Patriots’ quest for perfection. With Vegas heavily stacking the odds against the Giants, currently 12 point underdogs, and league MVP Tom Brady quarterbacking the opposing team’s offense, New York must play a perfect game to overthrow the powerful Patriots.
Any chance New York has to pull the ultimate upset is contingent on the play of fourth-year QB Eli Manning, who improved from a mediocre regular season, in which he threw 20 interceptions, to a mistake-free postseason where he has led his team to three straight road victories. Manning’s play is definitely crucial to the success of New York’s offense, and somewhat dependent on a strong start from running back Brandon Jacobs. The six-foot five, 260 pound Jacobs rushed for over 1,000 yards this season, despite missing substantial time with nagging injuries. If he is able to run the ball well early, it will be that much easier for Eli to pick apart a drawn-in Patriot defense.
New England’s linebackers Tedy Bruschi, Junior Seau and Mike Vrabel all lack the speed to match up with either Jacobs or fast rookie Ahmad Bradshaw, coming out of the backfield. These are the type of matchups that Manning must exploit in order to succeed in moving the ball against New England’s defense.
The final piece of New York’s offense that is crucial to its success is wide receiver Plaxico Burress. The six-foot five wideout had a dominant performance in the NFC Championship game, winning his match-up with Pro Bowl cornerback Al Harris of Green Bay. Burress had 11 receptions for 154 yards in that game, and will likely be covered by New England’s all-pro CB Asante Samuel in the Super Bowl.
If Jacobs is able to establish the run early for N.Y., then Manning will be able to utilize the play action pass and hopefully exploit the normally overzealous Patriot safety Rodney Harrison. The inspirational leader of the Patriots defense, Harrison was suspended for the first four games of the regular season after testing positive for use of Human Growth Hormone.
Lucky for the Giants, in the receiving game, size matters. Harrison is the only New England defensive back who is over six feet, at 6’1.” With 6’5” Burress, 6’3” wide receiver Amani Toomer, and 6’6” tight end Kevin Boss, New York has a huge height advantage all over the field. The area of the game where this advantage can be most exploited is in the red zone, where height can be the deciding factor in jump-ball situations. In December’s matchup between the two teams, the Giants were able to score touchdowns rather than field goals each of the four times they were in the red zone. If they can’t continue that trend on Sunday, they likely will find themselves trailing.
Another trend that the Giants must habituate is not committing turnovers. Manning had the most interceptions in the league during the regular season, but has amazingly been the only QB in the postseason who hasn’t thrown a pick. His counterpart, MVP and league-sweetheart Tom Brady, has had a different reversal in the playoffs. After throwing just eight interceptions during the regular season, he threw three picks last week against the Chargers. The winner of the turnover battle will likely win Super Bowl XLII.
Even if the Giants offense can put up a lot of points, it probably won’t be enough to take down the Pats, who boast the NFL’s first ranked offense and a record-setting duo of Brady and WR Randy Moss. New York’s defense must contain the Patriots’ historic offense, a daunting task for first-year defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Hailing from Grafton, Mass., Spagnuolo has been mentioned recently as a possible coaching candidate for the vacant Washington Redskins job. This game verses the Patriots, the second time he has faced them in a month, is a perfect opportunity for the 48-year-old to audition for potential suitors.
The Giants led the NFL in sacks this season with 53, and their ability to get pressure on Tom Brady is vital to having a shot at the upset. Osi Umenyora, Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck combined for 32 of the team’s sacks, and must excel on Sunday in disrupting Brady’s rhythm. The Giants’ secondary is not nearly talented enough to keep up with New England WRs Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth. It is imperative that the Giants’ front-four generates constant pressure on Brady. If he is able to consistently set his feet and scan the field, he will pick the Giants secondary apart.
Unfortunately for N.Y., the passing game is not the only potent aspect of New England’s offense. Laurence Maroney only rushed for 835 yards this season, but his low numbers are strictly due to the Patriots’ pass-happy offense and the fact that he missed three games early in the season. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry during the regular season and has eclipsed 100 yards in each of New England’s first two playoff games. For the Giants to be successful in stopping Maroney, they must have phenomenal play from their linebacker corps of Antonio Pierce, Kawika Mitchell and Reggie Torbor. Last week, we witnessed Pierce lead the Giants defense in containing Green Bay running back Ryan Grant to just 29 yards, a week after he erupted for 201 and three touchdowns against Seattle.
The Giants don’t match up too well on defense, but pressure on the opposing QB is the key to defensive success, and that happens to be the one area in which they excel. It definitely won’t be easy for the Giants to pull off the ultimate upset and prevent New England from completing a perfect 19-0 season. It definitely is possible, but they will have to be practically perfect on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: Giants 34 — Patriots 31