c/o L.E. Baskow, Associated Press

This year’s WNBA Finals are shaping up to be a close matchup. There’s a historic feeling about the games this year. Both franchises—the Las Vegas Aces and the Connecticut Sun—are looking for their first title after successful seasons.

The Aces advanced to the Finals after knocking out the Seattle Storm, marking Storm star Sue Bird’s retirement from the sport after 19 years. The Aces lost to the Storm in a blowout during the 2020 Championships, never winning a single game and losing the final matchup by a whopping 33 points. This year, the Aces have reflected on their mistakes and are looking for hardware. 

Led by Coach Becky Hammon in her first year of coaching the team, the Aces boast one of the best offensive squads in the league and an impressive record, finishing with the best regular-season records for two of the three past seasons. With three former No. 1 picks on their roster: Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young, and two-time league MVP A’ja Wilson, in addition to all-arounder Chelsea Gray, the Aces are stacked.

The Connecticut Sun isn’t a team to sneeze at. With the second-most wins in league history and DeWanna Bonner, who has won two titles with the Phoenix Mercury, the Sun has confidence and a rock-solid foundation. They also have Alyssa Thomas and 2021 MVP Jonquel Jones, both forwards who know how to use their physicality to their advantage. They can respond well to a challenge, as evidenced by their ability to hold on after dropping two games to the Chicago Sky in the semifinals.

Game 1, played on Sunday, Sept. 11, showed that winning the Championship won’t be a walk in the park for either team. The Aces won 67–64, but it was a hard-fought battle. Even with the ridiculous offense that the Aces are known for, they met their match as the Sun held them to a season-low 67 points. It was the worst offensive scoring performance for the Aces this season, but it was also the Sun’s lowest scoring postseason game.

In the first half, the Aces’ performance resembled that of the 2020 Championship season. They were outscored 21–9 in the second quarter and were down by four points going into the second half. Players just didn’t know what to do about the Sun’s physicality, leading to frustration when they couldn’t get baskets up.

Hammon’s halftime speech led them to finally pull ahead. 

“Oh, I was lit,” Hammon said when asked about her talk with the Aces during halftime. “Because everything we had talked about, we didn’t do any of it. And true to form, they just step up and do it then.”

Some of the top stars from both teams struggled. Plum was held to an astonishing six points (she averaged 20.2 points in the regular season), while Bonner only managed three, and missed an opportunity to tie up the game in the last few seconds.

However, both teams featured a number of top players. Wilson had 24 points and kept the Aces hanging on with her aggressive play style. Gray matched Wilson’s energy with 22 points. Thomas didn’t let the Aces have all the fun with a double-double (19 points, 11 rebounds). It’s clear that both sides knew how to handle themselves, even with such a low score. 

After losing Game 1, the Sun isn’t about to throw in the towel. They’re optimistic about the future despite their initial performance. 

“Ultimately, I’m happy with the game that we played,” Jones said, reflecting on Game 1. “We gave ourselves a good opportunity to come out there and get a win. And it just didn’t go our way, but we’re excited about Game 2.”  

It’s hard to predict how the series will go with such a close first game. Both teams have what it takes to advance, with great offense, tenacity, and championship experience, and need to prove themselves. It will all come down to who can outlast and outperform throughout all five games.

With the momentum of the first game, an offense that’s hungry to show off their abilities, and a chip on their shoulder from their blowout loss in the 2020 Championships, I predict that the Aces will settle into their groove and win the series, but the Sun will definitely challenge them for it. It’ll come down to Game Five to determine the champion, but I think the Aces will find a way to shake the Sun’s physicality and emerge victorious.

My WNBA Championship prediction: Aces win 3–2.

Cameron Bonnevie can be reached at cbonnevie@wesleyan.edu.